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COVID-19Analysis
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杨浩然 3 years ago
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  1. BIN
      COVID-19/Prediction/.vs/Prediction/v16/.suo
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      COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction.sln
  3. +23
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      COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/CN.py
  4. +8
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      COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ExponentialSmoothing.py
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      COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ExponentialSmoothing.pyproj
  6. BIN
      COVID-19/Visualization/.vs/Visualization/v16/.suo
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      COVID-19/Visualization/Project/China.html
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  9. BIN
      Essay/基于新冠疫情数据的分析与建模.docx
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BIN
COVID-19/Prediction/.vs/Prediction/v16/.suo View File


+ 1
- 1
COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction.sln View File

@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ Microsoft Visual Studio Solution File, Format Version 12.00
# Visual Studio Version 16
VisualStudioVersion = 16.0.30804.86
MinimumVisualStudioVersion = 10.0.40219.1
Project("{888888A0-9F3D-457C-B088-3A5042F75D52}") = "Holt_Winters", "Prediction\Holt_Winters.pyproj", "{FE4194E6-8A95-4B93-968D-ED4305D7F944}"
Project("{888888A0-9F3D-457C-B088-3A5042F75D52}") = "ExponentialSmoothing", "Prediction\ExponentialSmoothing.pyproj", "{FE4194E6-8A95-4B93-968D-ED4305D7F944}"
EndProject
Project("{888888A0-9F3D-457C-B088-3A5042F75D52}") = "ARIMA", "Prediction\ARIMA.pyproj", "{3F8A3B3F-C79E-412C-8EE4-DA8FF5DB31A6}"
EndProject

+ 23
- 0
COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/CN.py View File

@ -19,6 +19,27 @@ dataset = dataset[['Country/Region','Confirmed','Recovered','Deaths','Date']].gr
CN = dataset[dataset['Country/Region'] == 'China']
CN.index = pd.Index(pd.date_range('2020-01-22','2020-12-09',freq = '1D'))
#画出原始数据
fig0 = plt.figure()
axcon = fig0.add_subplot(221)
axcon.set_title("Confirmed")
confirmedSeries = pd.DataFrame(CN['Confirmed'])
confirmedSeries = confirmedSeries.fillna(0)
axcon.plot(confirmedSeries)
axrec = fig0.add_subplot(222)
axrec.set_title("Recovered")
recoveredSeries = pd.DataFrame(CN['Recovered'])
recoveredSeries = recoveredSeries.fillna(0)
axrec.plot(recoveredSeries)
axdea = fig0.add_subplot(223)
axdea.set_title("Deaths")
deathsSeries = pd.DataFrame(CN['Deaths'])
deathsSeries = deathsSeries.fillna(0)
axdea.plot(deathsSeries)
plt.show()
#差分后可视化
fig1 = plt.figure()
axcon = fig1.add_subplot(221)
@ -41,6 +62,8 @@ deathsSeries = pd.DataFrame(CN['Deaths'])
deathsSeries = deathsSeries.fillna(0)
deathsSeries['Deaths'] = deathsSeries['Deaths'] - deathsSeries['Deaths'].shift(1)
axdea.plot(deathsSeries)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()
#ADF检验

COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/Holt_Winters.py → COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ExponentialSmoothing.py View File

@ -52,6 +52,11 @@ rmseCNexpCon = pow(mean_squared_error(np.asarray(testCN['Confirmed']), np.asarra
rmseCNexpRec = pow(mean_squared_error(np.asarray(testCN['Recovered']), np.asarray(yCNexp['recoveredTest'])),0.05)
rmseCNexpDea = pow(mean_squared_error(np.asarray(testCN['Deaths']), np.asarray(yCNexp['deathsTest'])),0.5)
print(rmseCNexpCon)
print(rmseCNexpRec)
print(rmseCNexpDea)
#可视化
plt.title("Holt-Winters",verticalalignment="bottom",fontsize="13")
@ -73,4 +78,6 @@ plt.plot(forecastCNexp['deathsPred'],label="deaths prediction")
plt.tight_layout()
plt.gcf().autofmt_xdate()
plt.legend(labelspacing=0.05)
plt.show()
plt.show()
print(forecastCNexp)

COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/Holt_Winters.pyproj → COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ExponentialSmoothing.pyproj View File

@ -5,12 +5,12 @@
<ProjectGuid>fe4194e6-8a95-4b93-968d-ed4305d7f944</ProjectGuid>
<ProjectHome>
</ProjectHome>
<StartupFile>Holt_Winters.py</StartupFile>
<StartupFile>ExponentialSmoothing.py</StartupFile>
<SearchPath>
</SearchPath>
<WorkingDirectory>.</WorkingDirectory>
<OutputPath>.</OutputPath>
<Name>Holt_Winters</Name>
<Name>ExponentialSmoothing</Name>
<RootNamespace>Prediction</RootNamespace>
</PropertyGroup>
<PropertyGroup Condition=" '$(Configuration)' == 'Debug' ">
@ -22,7 +22,7 @@
<EnableUnmanagedDebugging>false</EnableUnmanagedDebugging>
</PropertyGroup>
<ItemGroup>
<Compile Include="Holt_Winters.py" />
<Compile Include="ExponentialSmoothing.py" />
</ItemGroup>
<Import Project="$(MSBuildExtensionsPath32)\Microsoft\VisualStudio\v$(VisualStudioVersion)\Python Tools\Microsoft.PythonTools.targets" />
<!-- Uncomment the CoreCompile target to enable the Build command in

BIN
COVID-19/Visualization/.vs/Visualization/v16/.suo View File


+ 5
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COVID-19/Visualization/Project/China.html View File

@ -8,11 +8,11 @@
</head>
<body>
<div id="b0fd2915225446dc993103826838ac2e" class="chart-container" style="width:900px; height:500px;"></div>
<div id="ecc00ed97de04a3daf63e0f4bd95876a" class="chart-container" style="width:900px; height:500px;"></div>
<script>
var chart_b0fd2915225446dc993103826838ac2e = echarts.init(
document.getElementById('b0fd2915225446dc993103826838ac2e'), 'white', {renderer: 'canvas'});
var option_b0fd2915225446dc993103826838ac2e = {
var chart_ecc00ed97de04a3daf63e0f4bd95876a = echarts.init(
document.getElementById('ecc00ed97de04a3daf63e0f4bd95876a'), 'white', {renderer: 'canvas'});
var option_ecc00ed97de04a3daf63e0f4bd95876a = {
"animation": true,
"animationThreshold": 2000,
"animationDuration": 1000,
@ -261,7 +261,7 @@
"borderWidth": 0
}
};
chart_b0fd2915225446dc993103826838ac2e.setOption(option_b0fd2915225446dc993103826838ac2e);
chart_ecc00ed97de04a3daf63e0f4bd95876a.setOption(option_ecc00ed97de04a3daf63e0f4bd95876a);
</script>
</body>
</html>

+ 6
- 6
COVID-19/Visualization/Project/world.html View File

@ -8,11 +8,11 @@
</head>
<body>
<div id="be6aa75c8c074717a723e4836e7cd56a" class="chart-container" style="width:900px; height:500px;"></div>
<div id="1d7acc6b8f6341fd8a0791917d630eb1" class="chart-container" style="width:900px; height:500px;"></div>
<script>
var chart_be6aa75c8c074717a723e4836e7cd56a = echarts.init(
document.getElementById('be6aa75c8c074717a723e4836e7cd56a'), 'white', {renderer: 'canvas'});
var option_be6aa75c8c074717a723e4836e7cd56a = {
var chart_1d7acc6b8f6341fd8a0791917d630eb1 = echarts.init(
document.getElementById('1d7acc6b8f6341fd8a0791917d630eb1'), 'white', {renderer: 'canvas'});
var option_1d7acc6b8f6341fd8a0791917d630eb1 = {
"animation": true,
"animationThreshold": 2000,
"animationDuration": 1000,
@ -51,7 +51,7 @@
{
"type": "map",
"label": {
"show": true,
"show": false,
"position": "top",
"margin": 8
},
@ -1001,7 +1001,7 @@
"borderWidth": 0
}
};
chart_be6aa75c8c074717a723e4836e7cd56a.setOption(option_be6aa75c8c074717a723e4836e7cd56a);
chart_1d7acc6b8f6341fd8a0791917d630eb1.setOption(option_1d7acc6b8f6341fd8a0791917d630eb1);
</script>
</body>
</html>

BIN
Essay/基于新冠疫情数据的分析与建模.docx View File


+ 20
- 0
ParaCon/0,0,1.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 5362.9155
Dependent Variable: Confirmed Log-Likelihood: -2672.8
Date: 2021-01-05 18:57 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 2 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 320 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 973.930
No. Iterations: 23.0000 HQIC: 5356.113
AIC: 5351.5918
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 289.5405 77.9627 3.7138 0.0002 136.7364 442.3447
ma.L1.Confirmed 0.4378 0.0433 10.1095 0.0000 0.3529 0.5227
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MA.1 -2.2842 0.0000 2.2842 0.5000
====================================================================

+ 22
- 0
ParaCon/0,0,2.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 5350.6644
Dependent Variable: Confirmed Log-Likelihood: -2663.8
Date: 2021-01-05 18:55 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 3 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 319 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 946.993
No. Iterations: 32.0000 HQIC: 5341.594
AIC: 5335.5662
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 289.3369 88.1978 3.2805 0.0010 116.4724 462.2014
ma.L1.Confirmed 0.4674 0.0550 8.5046 0.0000 0.3597 0.5751
ma.L2.Confirmed 0.2066 0.0482 4.2874 0.0000 0.1121 0.3010
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MA.1 -1.1314 -1.8871 2.2003 -0.3360
MA.2 -1.1314 1.8871 2.2003 0.3360
====================================================================

+ 24
- 0
ParaCon/0,0,3.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 5342.7083
Dependent Variable: Confirmed Log-Likelihood: -2656.9
Date: 2021-01-05 18:58 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 4 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 318 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 926.948
No. Iterations: 23.0000 HQIC: 5331.370
AIC: 5323.8356
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 288.9815 95.8887 3.0137 0.0026 101.0431 476.9200
ma.L1.Confirmed 0.4423 0.0593 7.4637 0.0000 0.3262 0.5585
ma.L2.Confirmed 0.2255 0.0519 4.3482 0.0000 0.1238 0.3271
ma.L3.Confirmed 0.1930 0.0534 3.6151 0.0003 0.0884 0.2977
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MA.1 -1.6632 -0.0000 1.6632 -0.5000
MA.2 0.2475 -1.7475 1.7649 -0.2276
MA.3 0.2475 1.7475 1.7649 0.2276
====================================================================

+ 20
- 0
ParaCon/1,0,0.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 5322.5254
Dependent Variable: Confirmed Log-Likelihood: -2652.6
Date: 2021-01-05 18:59 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 2 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 320 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 914.483
No. Iterations: 18.0000 HQIC: 5315.723
AIC: 5311.2017
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 288.8421 116.3359 2.4828 0.0130 60.8280 516.8562
ar.L1.Confirmed 0.5637 0.0458 12.2985 0.0000 0.4739 0.6535
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.7740 0.0000 1.7740 0.0000
====================================================================

+ 22
- 0
ParaCon/1,0,1.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 5289.0656
Dependent Variable: Confirmed Log-Likelihood: -2633.0
Date: 2021-01-05 19:10 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 3 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 319 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 859.915
No. Iterations: 28.0000 HQIC: 5279.995
AIC: 5273.9674
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 294.7647 257.2738 1.1457 0.2519 -209.4827 799.0121
ar.L1.Confirmed 0.9421 0.0249 37.8217 0.0000 0.8933 0.9909
ma.L1.Confirmed -0.6758 0.0571 -11.8346 0.0000 -0.7877 -0.5639
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0615 0.0000 1.0615 0.0000
MA.1 1.4797 0.0000 1.4797 0.0000
====================================================================

+ 24
- 0
ParaCon/1,0,2.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 5291.3404
Dependent Variable: Confirmed Log-Likelihood: -2631.2
Date: 2021-01-05 19:11 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 4 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 318 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 855.257
No. Iterations: 25.0000 HQIC: 5280.002
AIC: 5272.4677
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 304.6246 272.3319 1.1186 0.2633 -229.1361 838.3853
ar.L1.Confirmed 0.9523 0.0222 42.8738 0.0000 0.9087 0.9958
ma.L1.Confirmed -0.6014 0.0630 -9.5414 0.0000 -0.7249 -0.4778
ma.L2.Confirmed -0.1122 0.0596 -1.8835 0.0596 -0.2289 0.0046
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0501 0.0000 1.0501 0.0000
MA.1 1.3320 0.0000 1.3320 0.0000
MA.2 -6.6931 0.0000 6.6931 0.5000
====================================================================

+ 26
- 0
ParaCon/1,0,3.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 5294.8434
Dependent Variable: Confirmed Log-Likelihood: -2630.1
Date: 2021-01-05 19:12 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 5 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 317 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 852.192
No. Iterations: 25.0000 HQIC: 5281.238
AIC: 5272.1961
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 295.1671 262.6146 1.1240 0.2610 -219.5482 809.8823
ar.L1.Confirmed 0.9449 0.0247 38.1870 0.0000 0.8964 0.9934
ma.L1.Confirmed -0.6086 0.0608 -10.0054 0.0000 -0.7278 -0.4894
ma.L2.Confirmed -0.1580 0.0639 -2.4705 0.0135 -0.2833 -0.0326
ma.L3.Confirmed 0.0848 0.0556 1.5263 0.1269 -0.0241 0.1937
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0583 0.0000 1.0583 0.0000
MA.1 -2.6125 0.0000 2.6125 0.5000
MA.2 1.5356 0.0000 1.5356 0.0000
MA.3 2.9399 0.0000 2.9399 0.0000
====================================================================

+ 22
- 0
ParaCon/2,0,0.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 5315.4317
Dependent Variable: Confirmed Log-Likelihood: -2646.2
Date: 2021-01-05 19:13 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 3 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 319 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 896.283
No. Iterations: 6.0000 HQIC: 5306.361
AIC: 5300.3335
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 289.9099 141.2924 2.0518 0.0402 12.9819 566.8379
ar.L1.Confirmed 0.4518 0.0545 8.2926 0.0000 0.3450 0.5586
ar.L2.Confirmed 0.1973 0.0544 3.6245 0.0003 0.0906 0.3040
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.3807 0.0000 1.3807 0.0000
AR.2 -3.6702 0.0000 3.6702 0.5000
====================================================================

+ 24
- 0
ParaCon/2,0,1.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 5292.1965
Dependent Variable: Confirmed Log-Likelihood: -2631.7
Date: 2021-01-05 19:14 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 4 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 318 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 856.400
No. Iterations: 34.0000 HQIC: 5280.858
AIC: 5273.3238
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 301.4637 270.3988 1.1149 0.2649 -228.5082 831.4356
ar.L1.Confirmed 1.0758 0.0837 12.8548 0.0000 0.9118 1.2398
ar.L2.Confirmed -0.1185 0.0732 -1.6203 0.1052 -0.2619 0.0248
ma.L1.Confirmed -0.7459 0.0600 -12.4284 0.0000 -0.8635 -0.6282
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0514 0.0000 1.0514 0.0000
AR.2 8.0235 0.0000 8.0235 0.0000
MA.1 1.3407 0.0000 1.3407 0.0000
====================================================================

+ 26
- 0
ParaCon/2,0,2.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 5295.6309
Dependent Variable: Confirmed Log-Likelihood: -2630.5
Date: 2021-01-05 19:14 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 5 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 317 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 853.238
No. Iterations: 36.0000 HQIC: 5282.025
AIC: 5272.9836
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 298.5249 266.1328 1.1217 0.2620 -223.0859 820.1357
ar.L1.Confirmed 0.2884 0.3825 0.7539 0.4509 -0.4613 1.0380
ar.L2.Confirmed 0.6255 0.3558 1.7577 0.0788 -0.0720 1.3229
ma.L1.Confirmed 0.0460 0.3541 0.1298 0.8967 -0.6481 0.7400
ma.L2.Confirmed -0.5409 0.2160 -2.5043 0.0123 -0.9642 -0.1176
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0548 0.0000 1.0548 0.0000
AR.2 -1.5158 0.0000 1.5158 0.5000
MA.1 -1.3179 0.0000 1.3179 0.5000
MA.2 1.4029 0.0000 1.4029 0.0000
====================================================================

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ParaCon/2,0,3.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 5301.4254
Dependent Variable: Confirmed Log-Likelihood: -2630.5
Date: 2021-01-05 19:15 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 6 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 316 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 848.909
No. Iterations: 61.0000 HQIC: 5285.552
AIC: 5275.0035
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 84.5661 95.5489 0.8851 0.3761 -102.7064 271.8386
ar.L1.Confirmed 1.9752 0.0257 76.8601 0.0000 1.9249 2.0256
ar.L2.Confirmed -0.9775 0.0274 -35.6468 0.0000 -1.0312 -0.9237
ma.L1.Confirmed -1.6371 0.0712 -22.9889 0.0000 -1.7766 -1.4975
ma.L2.Confirmed 0.5209 0.1131 4.6047 0.0000 0.2992 0.7426
ma.L3.Confirmed 0.1162 0.0592 1.9633 0.0496 0.0002 0.2321
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0104 -0.0467 1.0115 -0.0073
AR.2 1.0104 0.0467 1.0115 0.0073
MA.1 1.0000 0.0000 1.0000 0.0000
MA.2 1.2738 0.0000 1.2738 0.0000
MA.3 -6.7585 0.0000 6.7585 0.5000
====================================================================

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ParaCon/3,0,0.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 5302.6036
Dependent Variable: Confirmed Log-Likelihood: -2636.9
Date: 2021-01-05 19:17 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 4 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 318 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 870.535
No. Iterations: 31.0000 HQIC: 5291.265
AIC: 5283.7308
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 286.6449 177.5115 1.6148 0.1064 -61.2712 634.5610
ar.L1.Confirmed 0.4047 0.0540 7.4927 0.0000 0.2988 0.5105
ar.L2.Confirmed 0.0902 0.0583 1.5472 0.1218 -0.0241 0.2044
ar.L3.Confirmed 0.2359 0.0539 4.3790 0.0000 0.1303 0.3414
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.1859 -0.0000 1.1859 -0.0000
AR.2 -0.7841 -1.7206 1.8908 -0.3181
AR.3 -0.7841 1.7206 1.8908 0.3181
====================================================================

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ParaCon/3,0,1.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 5294.6445
Dependent Variable: Confirmed Log-Likelihood: -2630.0
Date: 2021-01-05 19:17 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 5 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 317 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 851.927
No. Iterations: 31.0000 HQIC: 5281.039
AIC: 5271.9971
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 295.2501 262.3417 1.1254 0.2604 -218.9302 809.4303
ar.L1.Confirmed 0.9951 0.1055 9.4310 0.0000 0.7883 1.2020
ar.L2.Confirmed -0.1796 0.0828 -2.1696 0.0300 -0.3419 -0.0174
ar.L3.Confirmed 0.1247 0.0672 1.8571 0.0633 -0.0069 0.2564
ma.L1.Confirmed -0.6550 0.0950 -6.8986 0.0000 -0.8411 -0.4689
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0585 -0.0000 1.0585 -0.0000
AR.2 0.1908 -2.7454 2.7520 -0.2390
AR.3 0.1908 2.7454 2.7520 0.2390
MA.1 1.5266 0.0000 1.5266 0.0000
====================================================================

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ParaCon/3,0,2.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 5302.7321
Dependent Variable: Confirmed Log-Likelihood: -2631.2
Date: 2021-01-05 19:18 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 6 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 316 12-09-2020
Converged: 0.0000 S.D. of innovations: 850.329
No. Iterations: 54.0000 HQIC: 5286.859
AIC: 5276.3102
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 75.1953 177.6969 0.4232 0.6722 -273.0841 423.4748
ar.L1.Confirmed 2.1013 0.0716 29.3548 0.0000 1.9610 2.2416
ar.L2.Confirmed -1.2241 0.1332 -9.1892 0.0000 -1.4852 -0.9630
ar.L3.Confirmed 0.1209 0.0636 1.9013 0.0573 -0.0037 0.2455
ma.L1.Confirmed -1.7851 0.0801 -22.2804 0.0000 -1.9422 -1.6281
ma.L2.Confirmed 0.7851 0.0803 9.7739 0.0000 0.6277 0.9426
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0090 -0.0469 1.0100 -0.0074
AR.2 1.0090 0.0469 1.0100 0.0074
AR.3 8.1098 -0.0000 8.1098 -0.0000
MA.1 1.0000 0.0000 1.0000 0.0000
MA.2 1.2737 0.0000 1.2737 0.0000
====================================================================

BIN
ParaCon/Figure_1.png View File

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ParaDea/0,0,1.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 3731.9711
Dependent Variable: Deaths Log-Likelihood: -1857.3
Date: 2021-01-05 20:57 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 2 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 320 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 77.412
No. Iterations: 3.0000 HQIC: 3725.168
AIC: 3720.6474
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
const 14.6868 4.6199 3.1790 0.0015 5.6319 23.7418
ma.L1.Deaths 0.0711 0.0509 1.3978 0.1622 -0.0286 0.1709
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MA.1 -14.0564 0.0000 14.0564 0.5000
====================================================================

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ParaDea/0,0,2.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 3734.9149
Dependent Variable: Deaths Log-Likelihood: -1855.9
Date: 2021-01-05 20:57 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 3 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 319 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 77.071
No. Iterations: 11.0000 HQIC: 3725.844
AIC: 3719.8167
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
const 14.6748 4.9531 2.9628 0.0030 4.9669 24.3826
ma.L1.Deaths 0.0663 0.0559 1.1850 0.2360 -0.0434 0.1759
ma.L2.Deaths 0.0877 0.0520 1.6853 0.0919 -0.0143 0.1897
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MA.1 -0.3779 -3.3558 3.3770 -0.2678
MA.2 -0.3779 3.3558 3.3770 0.2678
====================================================================

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ParaDea/0,0,3.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 3739.3143
Dependent Variable: Deaths Log-Likelihood: -1855.2
Date: 2021-01-05 20:57 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 4 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 318 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 76.905
No. Iterations: 7.0000 HQIC: 3727.976
AIC: 3720.4415
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
const 14.6642 5.1795 2.8312 0.0046 4.5125 24.8159
ma.L1.Deaths 0.0633 0.0559 1.1311 0.2580 -0.0464 0.1729
ma.L2.Deaths 0.0847 0.0523 1.6198 0.1053 -0.0178 0.1871
ma.L3.Deaths 0.0619 0.0528 1.1725 0.2410 -0.0416 0.1654
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MA.1 0.7743 -2.2225 2.3535 -0.1966
MA.2 0.7743 2.2225 2.3535 0.1966
MA.3 -2.9168 -0.0000 2.9168 -0.5000
====================================================================

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ParaDea/1,0,0.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 3731.5706
Dependent Variable: Deaths Log-Likelihood: -1857.1
Date: 2021-01-05 20:57 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 2 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 320 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 77.363
No. Iterations: 13.0000 HQIC: 3724.768
AIC: 3720.2469
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
const 14.6845 4.7117 3.1166 0.0018 5.4497 23.9194
ar.L1.Deaths 0.0853 0.0554 1.5377 0.1241 -0.0234 0.1939
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 11.7296 0.0000 11.7296 0.0000
====================================================================

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ParaDea/1,0,1.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 3724.1844
Dependent Variable: Deaths Log-Likelihood: -1850.5
Date: 2021-01-05 20:57 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 3 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 319 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 75.775
No. Iterations: 21.0000 HQIC: 3715.114
AIC: 3709.0862
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
const 15.1675 10.0524 1.5088 0.1313 -4.5349 34.8698
ar.L1.Deaths 0.9556 0.0407 23.4832 0.0000 0.8758 1.0353
ma.L1.Deaths -0.8906 0.0629 -14.1484 0.0000 -1.0139 -0.7672
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0465 0.0000 1.0465 0.0000
MA.1 1.1229 0.0000 1.1229 0.0000
====================================================================

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ParaDea/1,0,2.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 3729.6649
Dependent Variable: Deaths Log-Likelihood: -1850.4
Date: 2021-01-05 20:57 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 4 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 318 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 75.740
No. Iterations: 24.0000 HQIC: 3718.327
AIC: 3710.7921
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
const 14.9472 9.6866 1.5431 0.1228 -4.0381 33.9326
ar.L1.Deaths 0.9474 0.0448 21.1304 0.0000 0.8595 1.0352
ma.L1.Deaths -0.9075 0.0715 -12.6950 0.0000 -1.0476 -0.7674
ma.L2.Deaths 0.0320 0.0586 0.5464 0.5848 -0.0829 0.1470
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0556 0.0000 1.0556 0.0000
MA.1 1.1485 0.0000 1.1485 0.0000
MA.2 27.1698 0.0000 27.1698 0.0000
====================================================================

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ParaDea/1,0,3.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 3735.4384
Dependent Variable: Deaths Log-Likelihood: -1850.4
Date: 2021-01-05 20:57 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 5 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 317 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 75.740
No. Iterations: 27.0000 HQIC: 3721.833
AIC: 3712.7911
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
const 14.9355 9.6727 1.5441 0.1226 -4.0227 33.8937
ar.L1.Deaths 0.9468 0.0481 19.6943 0.0000 0.8526 1.0410
ma.L1.Deaths -0.9070 0.0734 -12.3518 0.0000 -1.0509 -0.7631
ma.L2.Deaths 0.0306 0.0739 0.4139 0.6789 -0.1142 0.1754
ma.L3.Deaths 0.0019 0.0598 0.0326 0.9740 -0.1152 0.1191
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0562 0.0000 1.0562 0.0000
MA.1 1.1505 0.0000 1.1505 0.0000
MA.2 14.3224 0.0000 14.3224 0.0000
MA.3 -31.1883 0.0000 31.1883 0.5000
====================================================================

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ParaDea/2,0,0.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 3733.7991
Dependent Variable: Deaths Log-Likelihood: -1855.4
Date: 2021-01-05 20:57 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 3 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 319 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 76.936
No. Iterations: 14.0000 HQIC: 3724.729
AIC: 3718.7009
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
const 14.6659 5.2272 2.8057 0.0050 4.4207 24.9110
ar.L1.Deaths 0.0763 0.0553 1.3796 0.1677 -0.0321 0.1847
ar.L2.Deaths 0.1043 0.0553 1.8884 0.0590 -0.0040 0.2126
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 2.7516 0.0000 2.7516 0.0000
AR.2 -3.4830 0.0000 3.4830 0.5000
====================================================================

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ParaDea/2,0,1.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 3729.6661
Dependent Variable: Deaths Log-Likelihood: -1850.4
Date: 2021-01-05 20:57 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 4 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 318 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 75.740
No. Iterations: 22.0000 HQIC: 3718.328
AIC: 3710.7933
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
const 14.9546 9.6991 1.5419 0.1231 -4.0553 33.9645
ar.L1.Deaths 0.9116 0.0914 9.9766 0.0000 0.7325 1.0907
ar.L2.Deaths 0.0342 0.0627 0.5456 0.5853 -0.0887 0.1571
ma.L1.Deaths -0.8716 0.0739 -11.7948 0.0000 -1.0165 -0.7268
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0552 0.0000 1.0552 0.0000
AR.2 -27.6966 0.0000 27.6966 0.5000
MA.1 1.1473 0.0000 1.1473 0.0000
====================================================================

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ParaDea/2,0,2.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 3735.4081
Dependent Variable: Deaths Log-Likelihood: -1850.4
Date: 2021-01-05 20:57 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 5 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 317 12-09-2020
Converged: 0.0000 S.D. of innovations: 75.168
No. Iterations: 45.0000 HQIC: 3721.802
AIC: 3712.7608
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
const 13.9244 5.6290 2.4737 0.0134 2.8918 24.9571
ar.L1.Deaths 1.9780 0.0090 218.7390 0.0000 1.9603 1.9957
ar.L2.Deaths -0.9907 0.0084 -118.4326 0.0000 -1.0071 -0.9743
ma.L1.Deaths -1.9830 nan nan nan nan nan
ma.L2.Deaths 1.0000 nan nan nan nan nan
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 0.9983 -0.1132 1.0047 -0.0180
AR.2 0.9983 0.1132 1.0047 0.0180
MA.1 0.9915 -0.1302 1.0000 -0.0208
MA.2 0.9915 0.1302 1.0000 0.0208
====================================================================

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 3741.2026
Dependent Variable: Deaths Log-Likelihood: -1850.4
Date: 2021-01-05 20:57 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 6 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 316 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 75.739
No. Iterations: 42.0000 HQIC: 3725.329
AIC: 3714.7807
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
const 14.9677 9.7244 1.5392 0.1238 -4.0917 34.0272
ar.L1.Deaths 0.3708 2.1180 0.1750 0.8610 -3.7805 4.5220
ar.L2.Deaths 0.5476 2.0038 0.2733 0.7846 -3.3798 4.4751
ma.L1.Deaths -0.3309 2.1184 -0.1562 0.8759 -4.4828 3.8210
ma.L2.Deaths -0.4885 1.9266 -0.2535 0.7999 -4.2646 3.2876
ma.L3.Deaths 0.0132 0.0973 0.1358 0.8920 -0.1775 0.2040
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0546 0.0000 1.0546 0.0000
AR.2 -1.7316 0.0000 1.7316 0.5000
MA.1 1.1454 0.0000 1.1454 0.0000
MA.2 -1.7582 0.0000 1.7582 0.5000
MA.3 37.5690 0.0000 37.5690 0.0000
====================================================================

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ParaDea/3,0,0.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 3737.6668
Dependent Variable: Deaths Log-Likelihood: -1854.4
Date: 2021-01-05 20:57 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 4 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 318 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 76.706
No. Iterations: 16.0000 HQIC: 3726.329
AIC: 3718.7941
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
const 14.6465 5.6372 2.5982 0.0094 3.5978 25.6951
ar.L1.Deaths 0.0682 0.0555 1.2305 0.2185 -0.0405 0.1769
ar.L2.Deaths 0.0985 0.0553 1.7826 0.0747 -0.0098 0.2068
ar.L3.Deaths 0.0765 0.0553 1.3830 0.1667 -0.0319 0.1849
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.8922 -0.0000 1.8922 -0.0000
AR.2 -1.5898 -2.0931 2.6284 -0.3534
AR.3 -1.5898 2.0931 2.6284 0.3534
====================================================================

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ParaDea/3,0,1.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 3735.4399
Dependent Variable: Deaths Log-Likelihood: -1850.4
Date: 2021-01-05 20:57 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 5 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 317 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 75.740
No. Iterations: 22.0000 HQIC: 3721.834
AIC: 3712.7926
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
const 14.9469 9.6890 1.5427 0.1229 -4.0431 33.9369
ar.L1.Deaths 0.9104 0.1014 8.9811 0.0000 0.7117 1.1091
ar.L2.Deaths 0.0331 0.0753 0.4392 0.6605 -0.1145 0.1807
ar.L3.Deaths 0.0017 0.0640 0.0274 0.9782 -0.1236 0.1271
ma.L1.Deaths -0.8705 0.0852 -10.2167 0.0000 -1.0375 -0.7035
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0557 -0.0000 1.0557 -0.0000
AR.2 -9.9790 -21.0184 23.2670 -0.3205
AR.3 -9.9790 21.0184 23.2670 0.3205
MA.1 1.1488 0.0000 1.1488 0.0000
====================================================================

BIN
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ParaRec/0,0,1.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 4895.0924
Dependent Variable: Recovered Log-Likelihood: -2438.9
Date: 2021-01-05 20:30 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 2 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 320 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 470.884
No. Iterations: 13.0000 HQIC: 4888.290
AIC: 4883.7687
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 271.3909 41.2916 6.5726 0.0000 190.4610 352.3209
ma.L1.Recovered 0.5753 0.0337 17.0901 0.0000 0.5093 0.6413
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MA.1 -1.7382 0.0000 1.7382 0.5000
====================================================================

+ 22
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ParaRec/0,0,2.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 4783.8249
Dependent Variable: Recovered Log-Likelihood: -2380.4
Date: 2021-01-05 20:30 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 3 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 319 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 392.246
No. Iterations: 15.0000 HQIC: 4774.754
AIC: 4768.7267
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 270.7816 45.1337 5.9995 0.0000 182.3211 359.2420
ma.L1.Recovered 0.4547 0.0461 9.8605 0.0000 0.3643 0.5450
ma.L2.Recovered 0.6153 0.0434 14.1647 0.0000 0.5302 0.7005
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MA.1 -0.3695 -1.2201 1.2748 -0.2968
MA.2 -0.3695 1.2201 1.2748 0.2968
====================================================================

+ 24
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@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 4684.5030
Dependent Variable: Recovered Log-Likelihood: -2327.8
Date: 2021-01-05 20:30 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 4 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 318 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 332.718
No. Iterations: 29.0000 HQIC: 4673.165
AIC: 4665.6302
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 270.2229 47.6922 5.6660 0.0000 176.7479 363.6980
ma.L1.Recovered 0.4047 0.0475 8.5188 0.0000 0.3116 0.4978
ma.L2.Recovered 0.6032 0.0327 18.4688 0.0000 0.5392 0.6672
ma.L3.Recovered 0.5745 0.0408 14.0649 0.0000 0.4945 0.6546
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
MA.1 0.1843 -1.0923 1.1078 -0.2234
MA.2 0.1843 1.0923 1.1078 0.2234
MA.3 -1.4184 -0.0000 1.4184 -0.5000
====================================================================

+ 20
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ParaRec/1,0,0.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 4625.3036
Dependent Variable: Recovered Log-Likelihood: -2304.0
Date: 2021-01-05 20:30 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 2 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 320 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 309.252
No. Iterations: 22.0000 HQIC: 4618.501
AIC: 4613.9799
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 263.5869 126.3315 2.0865 0.0369 15.9816 511.1921
ar.L1.Recovered 0.8662 0.0273 31.6822 0.0000 0.8126 0.9198
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.1544 0.0000 1.1544 0.0000
====================================================================

+ 22
- 0
ParaRec/1,0,1.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 4491.2163
Dependent Variable: Recovered Log-Likelihood: -2234.1
Date: 2021-01-05 20:30 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 3 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 319 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 248.612
No. Iterations: 25.0000 HQIC: 4482.146
AIC: 4476.1181
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 211.9684 289.2837 0.7327 0.4637 -355.0172 778.9540
ar.L1.Recovered 0.9831 0.0092 107.0033 0.0000 0.9651 1.0011
ma.L1.Recovered -0.5906 0.0333 -17.7297 0.0000 -0.6559 -0.5253
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0172 0.0000 1.0172 0.0000
MA.1 1.6933 0.0000 1.6933 0.0000
====================================================================

+ 24
- 0
ParaRec/1,0,2.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 4425.8495
Dependent Variable: Recovered Log-Likelihood: -2198.5
Date: 2021-01-05 20:30 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 4 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 318 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 222.334
No. Iterations: 37.0000 HQIC: 4414.511
AIC: 4406.9768
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 225.9018 259.6955 0.8699 0.3844 -283.0921 734.8957
ar.L1.Recovered 0.9754 0.0116 84.3815 0.0000 0.9527 0.9981
ma.L1.Recovered -0.9000 0.0532 -16.9232 0.0000 -1.0042 -0.7957
ma.L2.Recovered 0.4743 0.0450 10.5469 0.0000 0.3862 0.5624
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0252 0.0000 1.0252 0.0000
MA.1 0.9487 -1.0992 1.4520 -0.1367
MA.2 0.9487 1.0992 1.4520 0.1367
====================================================================

+ 26
- 0
ParaRec/1,0,3.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 4431.5073
Dependent Variable: Recovered Log-Likelihood: -2198.4
Date: 2021-01-05 20:30 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 5 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 317 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 222.290
No. Iterations: 30.0000 HQIC: 4417.902
AIC: 4408.8600
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 227.6514 257.3265 0.8847 0.3763 -276.6993 732.0022
ar.L1.Recovered 0.9747 0.0119 81.7487 0.0000 0.9513 0.9981
ma.L1.Recovered -0.8934 0.0564 -15.8354 0.0000 -1.0039 -0.7828
ma.L2.Recovered 0.4540 0.0743 6.1073 0.0000 0.3083 0.5997
ma.L3.Recovered 0.0231 0.0679 0.3406 0.7334 -0.1100 0.1563
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0259 0.0000 1.0259 0.0000
MA.1 0.9443 -1.0572 1.4175 -0.1340
MA.2 0.9443 1.0572 1.4175 0.1340
MA.3 -21.5083 -0.0000 21.5083 -0.5000
====================================================================

+ 21
- 0
ParaRec/2,0,0.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 4478.0283
Dependent Variable: Recovered Log-Likelihood: -2227.5
Date: 2021-01-05 20:30 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 3 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 319 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 243.497
No. Iterations: 19.0000 HQIC: 4468.958
AIC: 4462.9301
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 236.9408 230.7881 1.0267 0.3046 -215.3955 689.2770
ar.L1.Recovered 0.3326 0.0436 7.6264 0.0000 0.2471 0.4181
ar.L2.Recovered 0.6132 0.0436 14.0549 0.0000 0.5276 0.6987
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0343 0.0000 1.0343 0.0000
AR.2 -1.5768 0.0000 1.5768

+ 24
- 0
ParaRec/2,0,1.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 4453.3685
Dependent Variable: Recovered Log-Likelihood: -2212.2
Date: 2021-01-05 20:30 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 4 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 318 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 232.189
No. Iterations: 40.0000 HQIC: 4442.030
AIC: 4434.4957
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 210.8647 291.0982 0.7244 0.4688 -359.6772 781.4066
ar.L1.Recovered 0.5134 0.0616 8.3396 0.0000 0.3927 0.6340
ar.L2.Recovered 0.4618 0.0597 7.7345 0.0000 0.3448 0.5788
ma.L1.Recovered -0.3519 0.0543 -6.4745 0.0000 -0.4584 -0.2453
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0172 0.0000 1.0172 0.0000
AR.2 -2.1288 0.0000 2.1288 0.5000
MA.1 2.8421 0.0000 2.8421 0.0000
====================================================================

+ 26
- 0
ParaRec/2,0,2.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 4431.4663
Dependent Variable: Recovered Log-Likelihood: -2198.4
Date: 2021-01-05 20:30 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 5 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 317 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 222.273
No. Iterations: 35.0000 HQIC: 4417.861
AIC: 4408.8190
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 228.5236 256.0263 0.8926 0.3721 -273.2787 730.3259
ar.L1.Recovered 1.0439 0.1829 5.7061 0.0000 0.6853 1.4025
ar.L2.Recovered -0.0678 0.1808 -0.3751 0.7076 -0.4221 0.2865
ma.L1.Recovered -0.9607 0.1708 -5.6238 0.0000 -1.2955 -0.6259
ma.L2.Recovered 0.5088 0.1030 4.9405 0.0000 0.3070 0.7106
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0264 0.0000 1.0264 0.0000
AR.2 14.3696 0.0000 14.3696 0.0000
MA.1 0.9441 -1.0364 1.4019 -0.1324
MA.2 0.9441 1.0364 1.4019 0.1324
====================================================================

+ 28
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ParaRec/2,0,3.txt View File

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====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 4437.1557
Dependent Variable: Recovered Log-Likelihood: -2198.4
Date: 2021-01-05 20:30 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 6 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 316 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 222.249
No. Iterations: 39.0000 HQIC: 4421.282
AIC: 4410.7338
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 228.6049 258.1525 0.8855 0.3759 -277.3648 734.5746
ar.L1.Recovered 0.3907 0.6060 0.6448 0.5191 -0.7971 1.5786
ar.L2.Recovered 0.5696 0.5915 0.9630 0.3355 -0.5897 1.7290
ma.L1.Recovered -0.3063 0.6033 -0.5076 0.6117 -1.4887 0.8762
ma.L2.Recovered -0.0739 0.5313 -0.1391 0.8893 -1.1152 0.9674
ma.L3.Recovered 0.2988 0.2743 1.0895 0.2760 -0.2388 0.8364
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0256 0.0000 1.0256 0.0000
AR.2 -1.7116 0.0000 1.7116 0.5000
MA.1 0.9405 -1.0788 1.4312 -0.1359
MA.2 0.9405 1.0788 1.4312 0.1359
MA.3 -1.6337 -0.0000 1.6337 -0.5000
====================================================================

+ 24
- 0
ParaRec/3,0,0.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 4436.9461
Dependent Variable: Recovered Log-Likelihood: -2204.0
Date: 2021-01-05 20:30 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 4 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 318 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 226.280
No. Iterations: 20.0000 HQIC: 4425.608
AIC: 4418.0734
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 210.9431 294.1785 0.7171 0.4733 -365.6361 787.5223
ar.L1.Recovered 0.1056 0.0516 2.0466 0.0407 0.0045 0.2068
ar.L2.Recovered 0.4911 0.0441 11.1458 0.0000 0.4048 0.5775
ar.L3.Recovered 0.3665 0.0515 7.1123 0.0000 0.2655 0.4675
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0166 -0.0000 1.0166 -0.0000
AR.2 -1.1784 -1.1382 1.6383 -0.3778
AR.3 -1.1784 1.1382 1.6383 0.3778
====================================================================

+ 26
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ParaRec/3,0,1.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 4442.5882
Dependent Variable: Recovered Log-Likelihood: -2204.0
Date: 2021-01-05 20:30 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 5 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 317 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 226.231
No. Iterations: 34.0000 HQIC: 4428.982
AIC: 4419.9409
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 211.7695 292.1043 0.7250 0.4685 -360.7445 784.2834
ar.L1.Recovered 0.0713 0.1063 0.6710 0.5022 -0.1371 0.2797
ar.L2.Recovered 0.5024 0.0533 9.4201 0.0000 0.3979 0.6069
ar.L3.Recovered 0.3876 0.0760 5.1012 0.0000 0.2387 0.5366
ma.L1.Recovered 0.0396 0.1090 0.3629 0.7167 -0.1740 0.2532
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0170 -0.0000 1.0170 -0.0000
AR.2 -1.1566 -1.0949 1.5926 -0.3794
AR.3 -1.1566 1.0949 1.5926 0.3794
MA.1 -25.2824 0.0000 25.2824 0.5000
====================================================================

+ 28
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ParaRec/3,0,2.txt View File

@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
====================================================================
Model: ARMA BIC: 4435.8358
Dependent Variable: Recovered Log-Likelihood: -2197.7
Date: 2021-01-05 20:30 Scale: 1.0000
No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle
Df Model: 6 Sample: 01-23-2020
Df Residuals: 316 12-09-2020
Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 221.752
No. Iterations: 38.0000 HQIC: 4419.962
AIC: 4409.4140
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------
const 236.3820 236.5531 0.9993 0.3177 -227.2536 700.0176
ar.L1.Recovered 1.2001 0.1240 9.6790 0.0000 0.9571 1.4431
ar.L2.Recovered -0.1122 0.1278 -0.8776 0.3801 -0.3627 0.1383
ar.L3.Recovered -0.1093 0.0807 -1.3544 0.1756 -0.2674 0.0489
ma.L1.Recovered -1.1224 0.1145 -9.8002 0.0000 -1.3469 -0.8979
ma.L2.Recovered 0.5669 0.0771 7.3503 0.0000 0.4158 0.7181
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1 1.0337 0.0000 1.0337 0.0000
AR.2 2.1185 0.0000 2.1185 0.0000
AR.3 -4.1788 0.0000 4.1788 0.5000
MA.1 0.9899 -0.8854 1.3281 -0.1161
MA.2 0.9899 0.8854 1.3281 0.1161
====================================================================

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