diff --git a/COVID-19/Prediction/.vs/Prediction/v16/.suo b/COVID-19/Prediction/.vs/Prediction/v16/.suo
index edfed0d..57e942b 100644
Binary files a/COVID-19/Prediction/.vs/Prediction/v16/.suo and b/COVID-19/Prediction/.vs/Prediction/v16/.suo differ
diff --git a/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction.sln b/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction.sln
index 07e0c3e..ad9d8ea 100644
--- a/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction.sln
+++ b/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction.sln
@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ Microsoft Visual Studio Solution File, Format Version 12.00
 # Visual Studio Version 16
 VisualStudioVersion = 16.0.30804.86
 MinimumVisualStudioVersion = 10.0.40219.1
-Project("{888888A0-9F3D-457C-B088-3A5042F75D52}") = "Holt_Winters", "Prediction\Holt_Winters.pyproj", "{FE4194E6-8A95-4B93-968D-ED4305D7F944}"
+Project("{888888A0-9F3D-457C-B088-3A5042F75D52}") = "ExponentialSmoothing", "Prediction\ExponentialSmoothing.pyproj", "{FE4194E6-8A95-4B93-968D-ED4305D7F944}"
 EndProject
 Project("{888888A0-9F3D-457C-B088-3A5042F75D52}") = "ARIMA", "Prediction\ARIMA.pyproj", "{3F8A3B3F-C79E-412C-8EE4-DA8FF5DB31A6}"
 EndProject
diff --git a/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/CN.py b/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/CN.py
index 4888244..573ba8b 100644
--- a/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/CN.py
+++ b/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/CN.py
@@ -19,6 +19,27 @@ dataset = dataset[['Country/Region','Confirmed','Recovered','Deaths','Date']].gr
 CN = dataset[dataset['Country/Region'] == 'China']
 CN.index = pd.Index(pd.date_range('2020-01-22','2020-12-09',freq = '1D'))  
 
+#画出原始数据
+fig0 = plt.figure()
+axcon = fig0.add_subplot(221)
+axcon.set_title("Confirmed")
+confirmedSeries = pd.DataFrame(CN['Confirmed'])
+confirmedSeries = confirmedSeries.fillna(0)
+axcon.plot(confirmedSeries)
+
+axrec = fig0.add_subplot(222)
+axrec.set_title("Recovered")
+recoveredSeries = pd.DataFrame(CN['Recovered'])
+recoveredSeries = recoveredSeries.fillna(0)
+axrec.plot(recoveredSeries)
+
+axdea = fig0.add_subplot(223)
+axdea.set_title("Deaths")
+deathsSeries = pd.DataFrame(CN['Deaths'])
+deathsSeries = deathsSeries.fillna(0)
+axdea.plot(deathsSeries)
+plt.show()
+
 #差分后可视化
 fig1 = plt.figure()
 axcon = fig1.add_subplot(221)
@@ -41,6 +62,8 @@ deathsSeries = pd.DataFrame(CN['Deaths'])
 deathsSeries = deathsSeries.fillna(0)
 deathsSeries['Deaths'] = deathsSeries['Deaths'] - deathsSeries['Deaths'].shift(1)
 axdea.plot(deathsSeries)
+plt.tight_layout()
+
 plt.show()
 
 #ADF检验
diff --git a/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/Holt_Winters.py b/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ExponentialSmoothing.py
similarity index 97%
rename from COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/Holt_Winters.py
rename to COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ExponentialSmoothing.py
index 75e8a31..1915684 100644
--- a/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/Holt_Winters.py
+++ b/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ExponentialSmoothing.py
@@ -52,6 +52,11 @@ rmseCNexpCon = pow(mean_squared_error(np.asarray(testCN['Confirmed']), np.asarra
 rmseCNexpRec = pow(mean_squared_error(np.asarray(testCN['Recovered']), np.asarray(yCNexp['recoveredTest'])),0.05)
 rmseCNexpDea = pow(mean_squared_error(np.asarray(testCN['Deaths']), np.asarray(yCNexp['deathsTest'])),0.5)
 
+print(rmseCNexpCon)
+print(rmseCNexpRec)
+print(rmseCNexpDea)
+
+
 #可视化
 plt.title("Holt-Winters",verticalalignment="bottom",fontsize="13")
 
@@ -73,4 +78,6 @@ plt.plot(forecastCNexp['deathsPred'],label="deaths prediction")
 plt.tight_layout()
 plt.gcf().autofmt_xdate()
 plt.legend(labelspacing=0.05)
-plt.show()
\ No newline at end of file
+plt.show()
+
+print(forecastCNexp)
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/Holt_Winters.pyproj b/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ExponentialSmoothing.pyproj
similarity index 90%
rename from COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/Holt_Winters.pyproj
rename to COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ExponentialSmoothing.pyproj
index 85c7ea9..bbeb406 100644
--- a/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/Holt_Winters.pyproj
+++ b/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ExponentialSmoothing.pyproj
@@ -5,12 +5,12 @@
     <ProjectGuid>fe4194e6-8a95-4b93-968d-ed4305d7f944</ProjectGuid>
     <ProjectHome>
     </ProjectHome>
-    <StartupFile>Holt_Winters.py</StartupFile>
+    <StartupFile>ExponentialSmoothing.py</StartupFile>
     <SearchPath>
     </SearchPath>
     <WorkingDirectory>.</WorkingDirectory>
     <OutputPath>.</OutputPath>
-    <Name>Holt_Winters</Name>
+    <Name>ExponentialSmoothing</Name>
     <RootNamespace>Prediction</RootNamespace>
   </PropertyGroup>
   <PropertyGroup Condition=" '$(Configuration)' == 'Debug' ">
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@
     <EnableUnmanagedDebugging>false</EnableUnmanagedDebugging>
   </PropertyGroup>
   <ItemGroup>
-    <Compile Include="Holt_Winters.py" />
+    <Compile Include="ExponentialSmoothing.py" />
   </ItemGroup>
   <Import Project="$(MSBuildExtensionsPath32)\Microsoft\VisualStudio\v$(VisualStudioVersion)\Python Tools\Microsoft.PythonTools.targets" />
   <!-- Uncomment the CoreCompile target to enable the Build command in
diff --git a/COVID-19/Visualization/.vs/Visualization/v16/.suo b/COVID-19/Visualization/.vs/Visualization/v16/.suo
index 9c5afaf..d643458 100644
Binary files a/COVID-19/Visualization/.vs/Visualization/v16/.suo and b/COVID-19/Visualization/.vs/Visualization/v16/.suo differ
diff --git a/COVID-19/Visualization/Project/China.html b/COVID-19/Visualization/Project/China.html
index 5e05b6a..6e0d6f4 100644
--- a/COVID-19/Visualization/Project/China.html
+++ b/COVID-19/Visualization/Project/China.html
@@ -8,11 +8,11 @@
 
 </head>
 <body>
-    <div id="b0fd2915225446dc993103826838ac2e" class="chart-container" style="width:900px; height:500px;"></div>
+    <div id="ecc00ed97de04a3daf63e0f4bd95876a" class="chart-container" style="width:900px; height:500px;"></div>
     <script>
-        var chart_b0fd2915225446dc993103826838ac2e = echarts.init(
-            document.getElementById('b0fd2915225446dc993103826838ac2e'), 'white', {renderer: 'canvas'});
-        var option_b0fd2915225446dc993103826838ac2e = {
+        var chart_ecc00ed97de04a3daf63e0f4bd95876a = echarts.init(
+            document.getElementById('ecc00ed97de04a3daf63e0f4bd95876a'), 'white', {renderer: 'canvas'});
+        var option_ecc00ed97de04a3daf63e0f4bd95876a = {
     "animation": true,
     "animationThreshold": 2000,
     "animationDuration": 1000,
@@ -261,7 +261,7 @@
         "borderWidth": 0
     }
 };
-        chart_b0fd2915225446dc993103826838ac2e.setOption(option_b0fd2915225446dc993103826838ac2e);
+        chart_ecc00ed97de04a3daf63e0f4bd95876a.setOption(option_ecc00ed97de04a3daf63e0f4bd95876a);
     </script>
 </body>
 </html>
diff --git a/COVID-19/Visualization/Project/world.html b/COVID-19/Visualization/Project/world.html
index 5351272..4d09aee 100644
--- a/COVID-19/Visualization/Project/world.html
+++ b/COVID-19/Visualization/Project/world.html
@@ -8,11 +8,11 @@
 
 </head>
 <body>
-    <div id="be6aa75c8c074717a723e4836e7cd56a" class="chart-container" style="width:900px; height:500px;"></div>
+    <div id="1d7acc6b8f6341fd8a0791917d630eb1" class="chart-container" style="width:900px; height:500px;"></div>
     <script>
-        var chart_be6aa75c8c074717a723e4836e7cd56a = echarts.init(
-            document.getElementById('be6aa75c8c074717a723e4836e7cd56a'), 'white', {renderer: 'canvas'});
-        var option_be6aa75c8c074717a723e4836e7cd56a = {
+        var chart_1d7acc6b8f6341fd8a0791917d630eb1 = echarts.init(
+            document.getElementById('1d7acc6b8f6341fd8a0791917d630eb1'), 'white', {renderer: 'canvas'});
+        var option_1d7acc6b8f6341fd8a0791917d630eb1 = {
     "animation": true,
     "animationThreshold": 2000,
     "animationDuration": 1000,
@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@
         {
             "type": "map",
             "label": {
-                "show": true,
+                "show": false,
                 "position": "top",
                 "margin": 8
             },
@@ -1001,7 +1001,7 @@
         "borderWidth": 0
     }
 };
-        chart_be6aa75c8c074717a723e4836e7cd56a.setOption(option_be6aa75c8c074717a723e4836e7cd56a);
+        chart_1d7acc6b8f6341fd8a0791917d630eb1.setOption(option_1d7acc6b8f6341fd8a0791917d630eb1);
     </script>
 </body>
 </html>
diff --git a/Essay/基于新冠疫情数据的分析与建模.docx b/Essay/基于新冠疫情数据的分析与建模.docx
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c17c461
Binary files /dev/null and b/Essay/基于新冠疫情数据的分析与建模.docx differ
diff --git a/ParaCon/0,0,1.txt b/ParaCon/0,0,1.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..282ca92
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaCon/0,0,1.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 5362.9155
+Dependent Variable: Confirmed        Log-Likelihood:      -2672.8
+Date:               2021-01-05 18:57 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           2                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       320                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 973.930
+No. Iterations:     23.0000          HQIC:                5356.113
+AIC:                5351.5918
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                   Coef.   Std.Err.    t    P>|t|   [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const             289.5405  77.9627  3.7138 0.0002 136.7364 442.3447
+ma.L1.Confirmed     0.4378   0.0433 10.1095 0.0000   0.3529   0.5227
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+MA.1           -2.2842             0.0000           2.2842             0.5000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaCon/0,0,2.txt b/ParaCon/0,0,2.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..12c6196
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaCon/0,0,2.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 5350.6644
+Dependent Variable: Confirmed        Log-Likelihood:      -2663.8
+Date:               2021-01-05 18:55 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           3                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       319                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 946.993
+No. Iterations:     32.0000          HQIC:                5341.594
+AIC:                5335.5662
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                    Coef.   Std.Err.   t    P>|t|   [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const              289.3369  88.1978 3.2805 0.0010 116.4724 462.2014
+ma.L1.Confirmed      0.4674   0.0550 8.5046 0.0000   0.3597   0.5751
+ma.L2.Confirmed      0.2066   0.0482 4.2874 0.0000   0.1121   0.3010
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+MA.1           -1.1314            -1.8871           2.2003            -0.3360
+MA.2           -1.1314             1.8871           2.2003             0.3360
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaCon/0,0,3.txt b/ParaCon/0,0,3.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..d1473ec
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaCon/0,0,3.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 5342.7083
+Dependent Variable: Confirmed        Log-Likelihood:      -2656.9
+Date:               2021-01-05 18:58 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           4                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       318                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 926.948
+No. Iterations:     23.0000          HQIC:                5331.370
+AIC:                5323.8356
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                    Coef.   Std.Err.   t    P>|t|   [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const              288.9815  95.8887 3.0137 0.0026 101.0431 476.9200
+ma.L1.Confirmed      0.4423   0.0593 7.4637 0.0000   0.3262   0.5585
+ma.L2.Confirmed      0.2255   0.0519 4.3482 0.0000   0.1238   0.3271
+ma.L3.Confirmed      0.1930   0.0534 3.6151 0.0003   0.0884   0.2977
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+MA.1           -1.6632            -0.0000           1.6632            -0.5000
+MA.2            0.2475            -1.7475           1.7649            -0.2276
+MA.3            0.2475             1.7475           1.7649             0.2276
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaCon/1,0,0.txt b/ParaCon/1,0,0.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..146b30f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaCon/1,0,0.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 5322.5254
+Dependent Variable: Confirmed        Log-Likelihood:      -2652.6
+Date:               2021-01-05 18:59 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           2                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       320                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 914.483
+No. Iterations:     18.0000          HQIC:                5315.723
+AIC:                5311.2017
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                    Coef.   Std.Err.    t    P>|t|   [0.025  0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const              288.8421 116.3359  2.4828 0.0130 60.8280 516.8562
+ar.L1.Confirmed      0.5637   0.0458 12.2985 0.0000  0.4739   0.6535
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.7740             0.0000           1.7740             0.0000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaCon/1,0,1.txt b/ParaCon/1,0,1.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..af95df8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaCon/1,0,1.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 5289.0656
+Dependent Variable: Confirmed        Log-Likelihood:      -2633.0
+Date:               2021-01-05 19:10 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           3                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       319                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 859.915
+No. Iterations:     28.0000          HQIC:                5279.995
+AIC:                5273.9674
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Coef.   Std.Err.    t     P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const           294.7647 257.2738   1.1457 0.2519 -209.4827 799.0121
+ar.L1.Confirmed   0.9421   0.0249  37.8217 0.0000    0.8933   0.9909
+ma.L1.Confirmed  -0.6758   0.0571 -11.8346 0.0000   -0.7877  -0.5639
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0615             0.0000           1.0615             0.0000
+MA.1            1.4797             0.0000           1.4797             0.0000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaCon/1,0,2.txt b/ParaCon/1,0,2.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..78b2220
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaCon/1,0,2.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 5291.3404
+Dependent Variable: Confirmed        Log-Likelihood:      -2631.2
+Date:               2021-01-05 19:11 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           4                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       318                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 855.257
+No. Iterations:     25.0000          HQIC:                5280.002
+AIC:                5272.4677
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                  Coef.   Std.Err.    t    P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const            304.6246 272.3319  1.1186 0.2633 -229.1361 838.3853
+ar.L1.Confirmed    0.9523   0.0222 42.8738 0.0000    0.9087   0.9958
+ma.L1.Confirmed   -0.6014   0.0630 -9.5414 0.0000   -0.7249  -0.4778
+ma.L2.Confirmed   -0.1122   0.0596 -1.8835 0.0596   -0.2289   0.0046
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0501             0.0000           1.0501             0.0000
+MA.1            1.3320             0.0000           1.3320             0.0000
+MA.2           -6.6931             0.0000           6.6931             0.5000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaCon/1,0,3.txt b/ParaCon/1,0,3.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..87a8a46
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaCon/1,0,3.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 5294.8434
+Dependent Variable: Confirmed        Log-Likelihood:      -2630.1
+Date:               2021-01-05 19:12 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           5                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       317                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 852.192
+No. Iterations:     25.0000          HQIC:                5281.238
+AIC:                5272.1961
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Coef.   Std.Err.    t     P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const           295.1671 262.6146   1.1240 0.2610 -219.5482 809.8823
+ar.L1.Confirmed   0.9449   0.0247  38.1870 0.0000    0.8964   0.9934
+ma.L1.Confirmed  -0.6086   0.0608 -10.0054 0.0000   -0.7278  -0.4894
+ma.L2.Confirmed  -0.1580   0.0639  -2.4705 0.0135   -0.2833  -0.0326
+ma.L3.Confirmed   0.0848   0.0556   1.5263 0.1269   -0.0241   0.1937
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0583             0.0000           1.0583             0.0000
+MA.1           -2.6125             0.0000           2.6125             0.5000
+MA.2            1.5356             0.0000           1.5356             0.0000
+MA.3            2.9399             0.0000           2.9399             0.0000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaCon/2,0,0.txt b/ParaCon/2,0,0.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..4c9e016
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaCon/2,0,0.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 5315.4317
+Dependent Variable: Confirmed        Log-Likelihood:      -2646.2
+Date:               2021-01-05 19:13 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           3                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       319                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 896.283
+No. Iterations:     6.0000           HQIC:                5306.361
+AIC:                5300.3335
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                     Coef.   Std.Err.   t    P>|t|   [0.025  0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const               289.9099 141.2924 2.0518 0.0402 12.9819 566.8379
+ar.L1.Confirmed       0.4518   0.0545 8.2926 0.0000  0.3450   0.5586
+ar.L2.Confirmed       0.1973   0.0544 3.6245 0.0003  0.0906   0.3040
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.3807             0.0000           1.3807             0.0000
+AR.2           -3.6702             0.0000           3.6702             0.5000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaCon/2,0,1.txt b/ParaCon/2,0,1.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..4b9bdbe
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaCon/2,0,1.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 5292.1965
+Dependent Variable: Confirmed        Log-Likelihood:      -2631.7
+Date:               2021-01-05 19:14 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           4                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       318                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 856.400
+No. Iterations:     34.0000          HQIC:                5280.858
+AIC:                5273.3238
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Coef.   Std.Err.    t     P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const           301.4637 270.3988   1.1149 0.2649 -228.5082 831.4356
+ar.L1.Confirmed   1.0758   0.0837  12.8548 0.0000    0.9118   1.2398
+ar.L2.Confirmed  -0.1185   0.0732  -1.6203 0.1052   -0.2619   0.0248
+ma.L1.Confirmed  -0.7459   0.0600 -12.4284 0.0000   -0.8635  -0.6282
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0514             0.0000           1.0514             0.0000
+AR.2            8.0235             0.0000           8.0235             0.0000
+MA.1            1.3407             0.0000           1.3407             0.0000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaCon/2,0,2.txt b/ParaCon/2,0,2.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c3cbae6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaCon/2,0,2.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 5295.6309
+Dependent Variable: Confirmed        Log-Likelihood:      -2630.5
+Date:               2021-01-05 19:14 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           5                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       317                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 853.238
+No. Iterations:     36.0000          HQIC:                5282.025
+AIC:                5272.9836
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                  Coef.   Std.Err.    t    P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const            298.5249 266.1328  1.1217 0.2620 -223.0859 820.1357
+ar.L1.Confirmed    0.2884   0.3825  0.7539 0.4509   -0.4613   1.0380
+ar.L2.Confirmed    0.6255   0.3558  1.7577 0.0788   -0.0720   1.3229
+ma.L1.Confirmed    0.0460   0.3541  0.1298 0.8967   -0.6481   0.7400
+ma.L2.Confirmed   -0.5409   0.2160 -2.5043 0.0123   -0.9642  -0.1176
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0548             0.0000           1.0548             0.0000
+AR.2           -1.5158             0.0000           1.5158             0.5000
+MA.1           -1.3179             0.0000           1.3179             0.5000
+MA.2            1.4029             0.0000           1.4029             0.0000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaCon/2,0,3.txt b/ParaCon/2,0,3.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c8499a4
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaCon/2,0,3.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 5301.4254
+Dependent Variable: Confirmed        Log-Likelihood:      -2630.5
+Date:               2021-01-05 19:15 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           6                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       316                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 848.909
+No. Iterations:     61.0000          HQIC:                5285.552
+AIC:                5275.0035
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                  Coef.  Std.Err.    t     P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const            84.5661  95.5489   0.8851 0.3761 -102.7064 271.8386
+ar.L1.Confirmed   1.9752   0.0257  76.8601 0.0000    1.9249   2.0256
+ar.L2.Confirmed  -0.9775   0.0274 -35.6468 0.0000   -1.0312  -0.9237
+ma.L1.Confirmed  -1.6371   0.0712 -22.9889 0.0000   -1.7766  -1.4975
+ma.L2.Confirmed   0.5209   0.1131   4.6047 0.0000    0.2992   0.7426
+ma.L3.Confirmed   0.1162   0.0592   1.9633 0.0496    0.0002   0.2321
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0104            -0.0467           1.0115            -0.0073
+AR.2            1.0104             0.0467           1.0115             0.0073
+MA.1            1.0000             0.0000           1.0000             0.0000
+MA.2            1.2738             0.0000           1.2738             0.0000
+MA.3           -6.7585             0.0000           6.7585             0.5000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaCon/3,0,0.txt b/ParaCon/3,0,0.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..2c250ef
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaCon/3,0,0.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 5302.6036
+Dependent Variable: Confirmed        Log-Likelihood:      -2636.9
+Date:               2021-01-05 19:17 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           4                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       318                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 870.535
+No. Iterations:     31.0000          HQIC:                5291.265
+AIC:                5283.7308
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                    Coef.   Std.Err.   t    P>|t|   [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const              286.6449 177.5115 1.6148 0.1064 -61.2712 634.5610
+ar.L1.Confirmed      0.4047   0.0540 7.4927 0.0000   0.2988   0.5105
+ar.L2.Confirmed      0.0902   0.0583 1.5472 0.1218  -0.0241   0.2044
+ar.L3.Confirmed      0.2359   0.0539 4.3790 0.0000   0.1303   0.3414
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.1859            -0.0000           1.1859            -0.0000
+AR.2           -0.7841            -1.7206           1.8908            -0.3181
+AR.3           -0.7841             1.7206           1.8908             0.3181
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaCon/3,0,1.txt b/ParaCon/3,0,1.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..94be432
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaCon/3,0,1.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 5294.6445
+Dependent Variable: Confirmed        Log-Likelihood:      -2630.0
+Date:               2021-01-05 19:17 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           5                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       317                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 851.927
+No. Iterations:     31.0000          HQIC:                5281.039
+AIC:                5271.9971
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                  Coef.   Std.Err.    t    P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const            295.2501 262.3417  1.1254 0.2604 -218.9302 809.4303
+ar.L1.Confirmed    0.9951   0.1055  9.4310 0.0000    0.7883   1.2020
+ar.L2.Confirmed   -0.1796   0.0828 -2.1696 0.0300   -0.3419  -0.0174
+ar.L3.Confirmed    0.1247   0.0672  1.8571 0.0633   -0.0069   0.2564
+ma.L1.Confirmed   -0.6550   0.0950 -6.8986 0.0000   -0.8411  -0.4689
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0585            -0.0000           1.0585            -0.0000
+AR.2            0.1908            -2.7454           2.7520            -0.2390
+AR.3            0.1908             2.7454           2.7520             0.2390
+MA.1            1.5266             0.0000           1.5266             0.0000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaCon/3,0,2.txt b/ParaCon/3,0,2.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..23c5475
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaCon/3,0,2.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 5302.7321
+Dependent Variable: Confirmed        Log-Likelihood:      -2631.2
+Date:               2021-01-05 19:18 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           6                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       316                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          0.0000           S.D. of innovations: 850.329
+No. Iterations:     54.0000          HQIC:                5286.859
+AIC:                5276.3102
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                  Coef.  Std.Err.    t     P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const            75.1953 177.6969   0.4232 0.6722 -273.0841 423.4748
+ar.L1.Confirmed   2.1013   0.0716  29.3548 0.0000    1.9610   2.2416
+ar.L2.Confirmed  -1.2241   0.1332  -9.1892 0.0000   -1.4852  -0.9630
+ar.L3.Confirmed   0.1209   0.0636   1.9013 0.0573   -0.0037   0.2455
+ma.L1.Confirmed  -1.7851   0.0801 -22.2804 0.0000   -1.9422  -1.6281
+ma.L2.Confirmed   0.7851   0.0803   9.7739 0.0000    0.6277   0.9426
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0090            -0.0469           1.0100            -0.0074
+AR.2            1.0090             0.0469           1.0100             0.0074
+AR.3            8.1098            -0.0000           8.1098            -0.0000
+MA.1            1.0000             0.0000           1.0000             0.0000
+MA.2            1.2737             0.0000           1.2737             0.0000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaCon/Figure_1.png b/ParaCon/Figure_1.png
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..49ba571
Binary files /dev/null and b/ParaCon/Figure_1.png differ
diff --git a/ParaDea/0,0,1.txt b/ParaDea/0,0,1.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..43dba1e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaDea/0,0,1.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 3731.9711
+Dependent Variable: Deaths           Log-Likelihood:      -1857.3
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:57 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           2                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       320                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 77.412
+No. Iterations:     3.0000           HQIC:                3725.168
+AIC:                3720.6474
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+                   Coef.   Std.Err.    t     P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+const             14.6868    4.6199  3.1790  0.0015   5.6319  23.7418
+ma.L1.Deaths       0.0711    0.0509  1.3978  0.1622  -0.0286   0.1709
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                Real            Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+MA.1          -14.0564             0.0000          14.0564             0.5000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaDea/0,0,2.txt b/ParaDea/0,0,2.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..5a9b540
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaDea/0,0,2.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 3734.9149
+Dependent Variable: Deaths           Log-Likelihood:      -1855.9
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:57 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           3                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       319                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 77.071
+No. Iterations:     11.0000          HQIC:                3725.844
+AIC:                3719.8167
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+                   Coef.   Std.Err.    t     P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+const             14.6748    4.9531  2.9628  0.0030   4.9669  24.3826
+ma.L1.Deaths       0.0663    0.0559  1.1850  0.2360  -0.0434   0.1759
+ma.L2.Deaths       0.0877    0.0520  1.6853  0.0919  -0.0143   0.1897
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+MA.1           -0.3779            -3.3558           3.3770            -0.2678
+MA.2           -0.3779             3.3558           3.3770             0.2678
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaDea/0,0,3.txt b/ParaDea/0,0,3.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..f1b993c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaDea/0,0,3.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 3739.3143
+Dependent Variable: Deaths           Log-Likelihood:      -1855.2
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:57 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           4                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       318                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 76.905
+No. Iterations:     7.0000           HQIC:                3727.976
+AIC:                3720.4415
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+                   Coef.   Std.Err.    t     P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+const             14.6642    5.1795  2.8312  0.0046   4.5125  24.8159
+ma.L1.Deaths       0.0633    0.0559  1.1311  0.2580  -0.0464   0.1729
+ma.L2.Deaths       0.0847    0.0523  1.6198  0.1053  -0.0178   0.1871
+ma.L3.Deaths       0.0619    0.0528  1.1725  0.2410  -0.0416   0.1654
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+MA.1            0.7743            -2.2225           2.3535            -0.1966
+MA.2            0.7743             2.2225           2.3535             0.1966
+MA.3           -2.9168            -0.0000           2.9168            -0.5000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaDea/1,0,0.txt b/ParaDea/1,0,0.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c8a9be1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaDea/1,0,0.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 3731.5706
+Dependent Variable: Deaths           Log-Likelihood:      -1857.1
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:57 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           2                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       320                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 77.363
+No. Iterations:     13.0000          HQIC:                3724.768
+AIC:                3720.2469
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+                   Coef.   Std.Err.    t     P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+const             14.6845    4.7117  3.1166  0.0018   5.4497  23.9194
+ar.L1.Deaths       0.0853    0.0554  1.5377  0.1241  -0.0234   0.1939
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1           11.7296             0.0000          11.7296             0.0000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaDea/1,0,1.txt b/ParaDea/1,0,1.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b041c9c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaDea/1,0,1.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 3724.1844
+Dependent Variable: Deaths           Log-Likelihood:      -1850.5
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:57 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           3                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       319                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 75.775
+No. Iterations:     21.0000          HQIC:                3715.114
+AIC:                3709.0862
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Coef.   Std.Err.     t      P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+const           15.1675   10.0524    1.5088  0.1313  -4.5349  34.8698
+ar.L1.Deaths     0.9556    0.0407   23.4832  0.0000   0.8758   1.0353
+ma.L1.Deaths    -0.8906    0.0629  -14.1484  0.0000  -1.0139  -0.7672
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0465             0.0000           1.0465             0.0000
+MA.1            1.1229             0.0000           1.1229             0.0000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaDea/1,0,2.txt b/ParaDea/1,0,2.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..e63c2ab
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaDea/1,0,2.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 3729.6649
+Dependent Variable: Deaths           Log-Likelihood:      -1850.4
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:57 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           4                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       318                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 75.740
+No. Iterations:     24.0000          HQIC:                3718.327
+AIC:                3710.7921
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Coef.   Std.Err.     t      P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+const           14.9472    9.6866    1.5431  0.1228  -4.0381  33.9326
+ar.L1.Deaths     0.9474    0.0448   21.1304  0.0000   0.8595   1.0352
+ma.L1.Deaths    -0.9075    0.0715  -12.6950  0.0000  -1.0476  -0.7674
+ma.L2.Deaths     0.0320    0.0586    0.5464  0.5848  -0.0829   0.1470
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0556             0.0000           1.0556             0.0000
+MA.1            1.1485             0.0000           1.1485             0.0000
+MA.2           27.1698             0.0000          27.1698             0.0000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaDea/1,0,3.txt b/ParaDea/1,0,3.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..54b1361
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaDea/1,0,3.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 3735.4384
+Dependent Variable: Deaths           Log-Likelihood:      -1850.4
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:57 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           5                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       317                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 75.740
+No. Iterations:     27.0000          HQIC:                3721.833
+AIC:                3712.7911
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Coef.   Std.Err.     t      P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+const           14.9355    9.6727    1.5441  0.1226  -4.0227  33.8937
+ar.L1.Deaths     0.9468    0.0481   19.6943  0.0000   0.8526   1.0410
+ma.L1.Deaths    -0.9070    0.0734  -12.3518  0.0000  -1.0509  -0.7631
+ma.L2.Deaths     0.0306    0.0739    0.4139  0.6789  -0.1142   0.1754
+ma.L3.Deaths     0.0019    0.0598    0.0326  0.9740  -0.1152   0.1191
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                Real            Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0562             0.0000           1.0562             0.0000
+MA.1            1.1505             0.0000           1.1505             0.0000
+MA.2           14.3224             0.0000          14.3224             0.0000
+MA.3          -31.1883             0.0000          31.1883             0.5000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaDea/2,0,0.txt b/ParaDea/2,0,0.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..5e486dc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaDea/2,0,0.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 3733.7991
+Dependent Variable: Deaths           Log-Likelihood:      -1855.4
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:57 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           3                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       319                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 76.936
+No. Iterations:     14.0000          HQIC:                3724.729
+AIC:                3718.7009
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+                   Coef.   Std.Err.    t     P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+const             14.6659    5.2272  2.8057  0.0050   4.4207  24.9110
+ar.L1.Deaths       0.0763    0.0553  1.3796  0.1677  -0.0321   0.1847
+ar.L2.Deaths       0.1043    0.0553  1.8884  0.0590  -0.0040   0.2126
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            2.7516             0.0000           2.7516             0.0000
+AR.2           -3.4830             0.0000           3.4830             0.5000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaDea/2,0,1.txt b/ParaDea/2,0,1.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..4798943
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaDea/2,0,1.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 3729.6661
+Dependent Variable: Deaths           Log-Likelihood:      -1850.4
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:57 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           4                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       318                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 75.740
+No. Iterations:     22.0000          HQIC:                3718.328
+AIC:                3710.7933
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Coef.   Std.Err.     t      P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+const           14.9546    9.6991    1.5419  0.1231  -4.0553  33.9645
+ar.L1.Deaths     0.9116    0.0914    9.9766  0.0000   0.7325   1.0907
+ar.L2.Deaths     0.0342    0.0627    0.5456  0.5853  -0.0887   0.1571
+ma.L1.Deaths    -0.8716    0.0739  -11.7948  0.0000  -1.0165  -0.7268
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                Real            Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0552             0.0000           1.0552             0.0000
+AR.2          -27.6966             0.0000          27.6966             0.5000
+MA.1            1.1473             0.0000           1.1473             0.0000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaDea/2,0,2.txt b/ParaDea/2,0,2.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..8c07764
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaDea/2,0,2.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 3735.4081
+Dependent Variable: Deaths           Log-Likelihood:      -1850.4
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:57 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           5                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       317                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          0.0000           S.D. of innovations: 75.168
+No. Iterations:     45.0000          HQIC:                3721.802
+AIC:                3712.7608
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+                Coef.   Std.Err.      t      P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+const          13.9244    5.6290     2.4737  0.0134   2.8918  24.9571
+ar.L1.Deaths    1.9780    0.0090   218.7390  0.0000   1.9603   1.9957
+ar.L2.Deaths   -0.9907    0.0084  -118.4326  0.0000  -1.0071  -0.9743
+ma.L1.Deaths   -1.9830       nan        nan     nan      nan      nan
+ma.L2.Deaths    1.0000       nan        nan     nan      nan      nan
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            0.9983            -0.1132           1.0047            -0.0180
+AR.2            0.9983             0.1132           1.0047             0.0180
+MA.1            0.9915            -0.1302           1.0000            -0.0208
+MA.2            0.9915             0.1302           1.0000             0.0208
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaDea/2,0,3.txt b/ParaDea/2,0,3.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..a39c8b7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaDea/2,0,3.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 3741.2026
+Dependent Variable: Deaths           Log-Likelihood:      -1850.4
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:57 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           6                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       316                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 75.739
+No. Iterations:     42.0000          HQIC:                3725.329
+AIC:                3714.7807
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+                  Coef.   Std.Err.     t     P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+const            14.9677    9.7244   1.5392  0.1238  -4.0917  34.0272
+ar.L1.Deaths      0.3708    2.1180   0.1750  0.8610  -3.7805   4.5220
+ar.L2.Deaths      0.5476    2.0038   0.2733  0.7846  -3.3798   4.4751
+ma.L1.Deaths     -0.3309    2.1184  -0.1562  0.8759  -4.4828   3.8210
+ma.L2.Deaths     -0.4885    1.9266  -0.2535  0.7999  -4.2646   3.2876
+ma.L3.Deaths      0.0132    0.0973   0.1358  0.8920  -0.1775   0.2040
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0546             0.0000           1.0546             0.0000
+AR.2           -1.7316             0.0000           1.7316             0.5000
+MA.1            1.1454             0.0000           1.1454             0.0000
+MA.2           -1.7582             0.0000           1.7582             0.5000
+MA.3           37.5690             0.0000          37.5690             0.0000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaDea/3,0,0.txt b/ParaDea/3,0,0.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..fbfacd9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaDea/3,0,0.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 3737.6668
+Dependent Variable: Deaths           Log-Likelihood:      -1854.4
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:57 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           4                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       318                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 76.706
+No. Iterations:     16.0000          HQIC:                3726.329
+AIC:                3718.7941
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+                   Coef.   Std.Err.    t     P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+const             14.6465    5.6372  2.5982  0.0094   3.5978  25.6951
+ar.L1.Deaths       0.0682    0.0555  1.2305  0.2185  -0.0405   0.1769
+ar.L2.Deaths       0.0985    0.0553  1.7826  0.0747  -0.0098   0.2068
+ar.L3.Deaths       0.0765    0.0553  1.3830  0.1667  -0.0319   0.1849
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.8922            -0.0000           1.8922            -0.0000
+AR.2           -1.5898            -2.0931           2.6284            -0.3534
+AR.3           -1.5898             2.0931           2.6284             0.3534
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaDea/3,0,1.txt b/ParaDea/3,0,1.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..4aaec98
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaDea/3,0,1.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 3735.4399
+Dependent Variable: Deaths           Log-Likelihood:      -1850.4
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:57 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           5                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       317                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 75.740
+No. Iterations:     22.0000          HQIC:                3721.834
+AIC:                3712.7926
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Coef.   Std.Err.     t      P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+---------------------------------------------------------------------
+const           14.9469    9.6890    1.5427  0.1229  -4.0431  33.9369
+ar.L1.Deaths     0.9104    0.1014    8.9811  0.0000   0.7117   1.1091
+ar.L2.Deaths     0.0331    0.0753    0.4392  0.6605  -0.1145   0.1807
+ar.L3.Deaths     0.0017    0.0640    0.0274  0.9782  -0.1236   0.1271
+ma.L1.Deaths    -0.8705    0.0852  -10.2167  0.0000  -1.0375  -0.7035
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0557            -0.0000           1.0557            -0.0000
+AR.2           -9.9790           -21.0184          23.2670            -0.3205
+AR.3           -9.9790            21.0184          23.2670             0.3205
+MA.1            1.1488             0.0000           1.1488             0.0000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaDea/Figure_1.png b/ParaDea/Figure_1.png
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..bcc847c
Binary files /dev/null and b/ParaDea/Figure_1.png differ
diff --git a/ParaRec/0,0,1.txt b/ParaRec/0,0,1.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..1e86257
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaRec/0,0,1.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 4895.0924
+Dependent Variable: Recovered        Log-Likelihood:      -2438.9
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:30 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           2                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       320                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 470.884
+No. Iterations:     13.0000          HQIC:                4888.290
+AIC:                4883.7687
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                   Coef.   Std.Err.    t    P>|t|   [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const             271.3909  41.2916  6.5726 0.0000 190.4610 352.3209
+ma.L1.Recovered     0.5753   0.0337 17.0901 0.0000   0.5093   0.6413
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+MA.1           -1.7382             0.0000           1.7382             0.5000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaRec/0,0,2.txt b/ParaRec/0,0,2.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..ddb7e58
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaRec/0,0,2.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 4783.8249
+Dependent Variable: Recovered        Log-Likelihood:      -2380.4
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:30 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           3                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       319                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 392.246
+No. Iterations:     15.0000          HQIC:                4774.754
+AIC:                4768.7267
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                   Coef.   Std.Err.    t    P>|t|   [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const             270.7816  45.1337  5.9995 0.0000 182.3211 359.2420
+ma.L1.Recovered     0.4547   0.0461  9.8605 0.0000   0.3643   0.5450
+ma.L2.Recovered     0.6153   0.0434 14.1647 0.0000   0.5302   0.7005
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+MA.1           -0.3695            -1.2201           1.2748            -0.2968
+MA.2           -0.3695             1.2201           1.2748             0.2968
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaRec/0,0,3.txt b/ParaRec/0,0,3.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..8e5d835
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaRec/0,0,3.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 4684.5030
+Dependent Variable: Recovered        Log-Likelihood:      -2327.8
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:30 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           4                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       318                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 332.718
+No. Iterations:     29.0000          HQIC:                4673.165
+AIC:                4665.6302
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                   Coef.   Std.Err.    t    P>|t|   [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const             270.2229  47.6922  5.6660 0.0000 176.7479 363.6980
+ma.L1.Recovered     0.4047   0.0475  8.5188 0.0000   0.3116   0.4978
+ma.L2.Recovered     0.6032   0.0327 18.4688 0.0000   0.5392   0.6672
+ma.L3.Recovered     0.5745   0.0408 14.0649 0.0000   0.4945   0.6546
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+MA.1            0.1843            -1.0923           1.1078            -0.2234
+MA.2            0.1843             1.0923           1.1078             0.2234
+MA.3           -1.4184            -0.0000           1.4184            -0.5000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaRec/1,0,0.txt b/ParaRec/1,0,0.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b0ab7c8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaRec/1,0,0.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 4625.3036
+Dependent Variable: Recovered        Log-Likelihood:      -2304.0
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:30 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           2                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       320                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 309.252
+No. Iterations:     22.0000          HQIC:                4618.501
+AIC:                4613.9799
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                    Coef.   Std.Err.    t    P>|t|   [0.025  0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const              263.5869 126.3315  2.0865 0.0369 15.9816 511.1921
+ar.L1.Recovered      0.8662   0.0273 31.6822 0.0000  0.8126   0.9198
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.1544             0.0000           1.1544             0.0000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaRec/1,0,1.txt b/ParaRec/1,0,1.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..6da8b2a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaRec/1,0,1.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 4491.2163
+Dependent Variable: Recovered        Log-Likelihood:      -2234.1
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:30 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           3                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       319                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 248.612
+No. Iterations:     25.0000          HQIC:                4482.146
+AIC:                4476.1181
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Coef.   Std.Err.    t     P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const           211.9684 289.2837   0.7327 0.4637 -355.0172 778.9540
+ar.L1.Recovered   0.9831   0.0092 107.0033 0.0000    0.9651   1.0011
+ma.L1.Recovered  -0.5906   0.0333 -17.7297 0.0000   -0.6559  -0.5253
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0172             0.0000           1.0172             0.0000
+MA.1            1.6933             0.0000           1.6933             0.0000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaRec/1,0,2.txt b/ParaRec/1,0,2.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..48ef152
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaRec/1,0,2.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 4425.8495
+Dependent Variable: Recovered        Log-Likelihood:      -2198.5
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:30 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           4                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       318                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 222.334
+No. Iterations:     37.0000          HQIC:                4414.511
+AIC:                4406.9768
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Coef.   Std.Err.    t     P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const           225.9018 259.6955   0.8699 0.3844 -283.0921 734.8957
+ar.L1.Recovered   0.9754   0.0116  84.3815 0.0000    0.9527   0.9981
+ma.L1.Recovered  -0.9000   0.0532 -16.9232 0.0000   -1.0042  -0.7957
+ma.L2.Recovered   0.4743   0.0450  10.5469 0.0000    0.3862   0.5624
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0252             0.0000           1.0252             0.0000
+MA.1            0.9487            -1.0992           1.4520            -0.1367
+MA.2            0.9487             1.0992           1.4520             0.1367
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaRec/1,0,3.txt b/ParaRec/1,0,3.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..6775d05
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaRec/1,0,3.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 4431.5073
+Dependent Variable: Recovered        Log-Likelihood:      -2198.4
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:30 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           5                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       317                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 222.290
+No. Iterations:     30.0000          HQIC:                4417.902
+AIC:                4408.8600
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Coef.   Std.Err.    t     P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const           227.6514 257.3265   0.8847 0.3763 -276.6993 732.0022
+ar.L1.Recovered   0.9747   0.0119  81.7487 0.0000    0.9513   0.9981
+ma.L1.Recovered  -0.8934   0.0564 -15.8354 0.0000   -1.0039  -0.7828
+ma.L2.Recovered   0.4540   0.0743   6.1073 0.0000    0.3083   0.5997
+ma.L3.Recovered   0.0231   0.0679   0.3406 0.7334   -0.1100   0.1563
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                Real            Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0259             0.0000           1.0259             0.0000
+MA.1            0.9443            -1.0572           1.4175            -0.1340
+MA.2            0.9443             1.0572           1.4175             0.1340
+MA.3          -21.5083            -0.0000          21.5083            -0.5000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaRec/2,0,0.txt b/ParaRec/2,0,0.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..fd76260
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaRec/2,0,0.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 4478.0283
+Dependent Variable: Recovered        Log-Likelihood:      -2227.5
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:30 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           3                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       319                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 243.497
+No. Iterations:     19.0000          HQIC:                4468.958
+AIC:                4462.9301
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                  Coef.   Std.Err.    t    P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const            236.9408 230.7881  1.0267 0.3046 -215.3955 689.2770
+ar.L1.Recovered    0.3326   0.0436  7.6264 0.0000    0.2471   0.4181
+ar.L2.Recovered    0.6132   0.0436 14.0549 0.0000    0.5276   0.6987
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0343             0.0000           1.0343             0.0000
+AR.2           -1.5768             0.0000           1.5768
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaRec/2,0,1.txt b/ParaRec/2,0,1.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..ab19e89
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaRec/2,0,1.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 4453.3685
+Dependent Variable: Recovered        Log-Likelihood:      -2212.2
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:30 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           4                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       318                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 232.189
+No. Iterations:     40.0000          HQIC:                4442.030
+AIC:                4434.4957
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                  Coef.   Std.Err.    t    P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const            210.8647 291.0982  0.7244 0.4688 -359.6772 781.4066
+ar.L1.Recovered    0.5134   0.0616  8.3396 0.0000    0.3927   0.6340
+ar.L2.Recovered    0.4618   0.0597  7.7345 0.0000    0.3448   0.5788
+ma.L1.Recovered   -0.3519   0.0543 -6.4745 0.0000   -0.4584  -0.2453
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0172             0.0000           1.0172             0.0000
+AR.2           -2.1288             0.0000           2.1288             0.5000
+MA.1            2.8421             0.0000           2.8421             0.0000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaRec/2,0,2.txt b/ParaRec/2,0,2.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..fbcc828
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaRec/2,0,2.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 4431.4663
+Dependent Variable: Recovered        Log-Likelihood:      -2198.4
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:30 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           5                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       317                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 222.273
+No. Iterations:     35.0000          HQIC:                4417.861
+AIC:                4408.8190
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                  Coef.   Std.Err.    t    P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const            228.5236 256.0263  0.8926 0.3721 -273.2787 730.3259
+ar.L1.Recovered    1.0439   0.1829  5.7061 0.0000    0.6853   1.4025
+ar.L2.Recovered   -0.0678   0.1808 -0.3751 0.7076   -0.4221   0.2865
+ma.L1.Recovered   -0.9607   0.1708 -5.6238 0.0000   -1.2955  -0.6259
+ma.L2.Recovered    0.5088   0.1030  4.9405 0.0000    0.3070   0.7106
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0264             0.0000           1.0264             0.0000
+AR.2           14.3696             0.0000          14.3696             0.0000
+MA.1            0.9441            -1.0364           1.4019            -0.1324
+MA.2            0.9441             1.0364           1.4019             0.1324
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaRec/2,0,3.txt b/ParaRec/2,0,3.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b2ada94
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaRec/2,0,3.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 4437.1557
+Dependent Variable: Recovered        Log-Likelihood:      -2198.4
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:30 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           6                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       316                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 222.249
+No. Iterations:     39.0000          HQIC:                4421.282
+AIC:                4410.7338
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                  Coef.   Std.Err.    t    P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const            228.6049 258.1525  0.8855 0.3759 -277.3648 734.5746
+ar.L1.Recovered    0.3907   0.6060  0.6448 0.5191   -0.7971   1.5786
+ar.L2.Recovered    0.5696   0.5915  0.9630 0.3355   -0.5897   1.7290
+ma.L1.Recovered   -0.3063   0.6033 -0.5076 0.6117   -1.4887   0.8762
+ma.L2.Recovered   -0.0739   0.5313 -0.1391 0.8893   -1.1152   0.9674
+ma.L3.Recovered    0.2988   0.2743  1.0895 0.2760   -0.2388   0.8364
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0256             0.0000           1.0256             0.0000
+AR.2           -1.7116             0.0000           1.7116             0.5000
+MA.1            0.9405            -1.0788           1.4312            -0.1359
+MA.2            0.9405             1.0788           1.4312             0.1359
+MA.3           -1.6337            -0.0000           1.6337            -0.5000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaRec/3,0,0.txt b/ParaRec/3,0,0.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..6106555
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaRec/3,0,0.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 4436.9461
+Dependent Variable: Recovered        Log-Likelihood:      -2204.0
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:30 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           4                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       318                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 226.280
+No. Iterations:     20.0000          HQIC:                4425.608
+AIC:                4418.0734
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                  Coef.   Std.Err.    t    P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const            210.9431 294.1785  0.7171 0.4733 -365.6361 787.5223
+ar.L1.Recovered    0.1056   0.0516  2.0466 0.0407    0.0045   0.2068
+ar.L2.Recovered    0.4911   0.0441 11.1458 0.0000    0.4048   0.5775
+ar.L3.Recovered    0.3665   0.0515  7.1123 0.0000    0.2655   0.4675
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0166            -0.0000           1.0166            -0.0000
+AR.2           -1.1784            -1.1382           1.6383            -0.3778
+AR.3           -1.1784             1.1382           1.6383             0.3778
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaRec/3,0,1.txt b/ParaRec/3,0,1.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..72ddbd8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaRec/3,0,1.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 4442.5882
+Dependent Variable: Recovered        Log-Likelihood:      -2204.0
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:30 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           5                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       317                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 226.231
+No. Iterations:     34.0000          HQIC:                4428.982
+AIC:                4419.9409
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                   Coef.   Std.Err.   t    P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const             211.7695 292.1043 0.7250 0.4685 -360.7445 784.2834
+ar.L1.Recovered     0.0713   0.1063 0.6710 0.5022   -0.1371   0.2797
+ar.L2.Recovered     0.5024   0.0533 9.4201 0.0000    0.3979   0.6069
+ar.L3.Recovered     0.3876   0.0760 5.1012 0.0000    0.2387   0.5366
+ma.L1.Recovered     0.0396   0.1090 0.3629 0.7167   -0.1740   0.2532
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                Real            Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0170            -0.0000           1.0170            -0.0000
+AR.2           -1.1566            -1.0949           1.5926            -0.3794
+AR.3           -1.1566             1.0949           1.5926             0.3794
+MA.1          -25.2824             0.0000          25.2824             0.5000
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/ParaRec/3,0,2.txt b/ParaRec/3,0,2.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..7605e1b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/ParaRec/3,0,2.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+====================================================================
+Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 4435.8358
+Dependent Variable: Recovered        Log-Likelihood:      -2197.7
+Date:               2021-01-05 20:30 Scale:               1.0000
+No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
+Df Model:           6                Sample:              01-23-2020
+Df Residuals:       316                                   12-09-2020
+Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 221.752
+No. Iterations:     38.0000          HQIC:                4419.962
+AIC:                4409.4140
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+                  Coef.   Std.Err.    t    P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
+--------------------------------------------------------------------
+const            236.3820 236.5531  0.9993 0.3177 -227.2536 700.0176
+ar.L1.Recovered    1.2001   0.1240  9.6790 0.0000    0.9571   1.4431
+ar.L2.Recovered   -0.1122   0.1278 -0.8776 0.3801   -0.3627   0.1383
+ar.L3.Recovered   -0.1093   0.0807 -1.3544 0.1756   -0.2674   0.0489
+ma.L1.Recovered   -1.1224   0.1145 -9.8002 0.0000   -1.3469  -0.8979
+ma.L2.Recovered    0.5669   0.0771  7.3503 0.0000    0.4158   0.7181
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+AR.1            1.0337             0.0000           1.0337             0.0000
+AR.2            2.1185             0.0000           2.1185             0.0000
+AR.3           -4.1788             0.0000           4.1788             0.5000
+MA.1            0.9899            -0.8854           1.3281            -0.1161
+MA.2            0.9899             0.8854           1.3281             0.1161
+====================================================================
\ No newline at end of file
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