==================================================================== Model: ARMA BIC: 3731.9711 Dependent Variable: Deaths Log-Likelihood: -1857.3 Date: 2021-01-05 20:57 Scale: 1.0000 No. Observations: 322 Method: css-mle Df Model: 2 Sample: 01-23-2020 Df Residuals: 320 12-09-2020 Converged: 1.0000 S.D. of innovations: 77.412 No. Iterations: 3.0000 HQIC: 3725.168 AIC: 3720.6474 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Coef. Std.Err. t P>|t| [0.025 0.975] --------------------------------------------------------------------- const 14.6868 4.6199 3.1790 0.0015 5.6319 23.7418 ma.L1.Deaths 0.0711 0.0509 1.3978 0.1622 -0.0286 0.1709 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MA.1 -14.0564 0.0000 14.0564 0.5000 ====================================================================