====================================================================
Model:              ARMA             BIC:                 3735.4399
Dependent Variable: Deaths           Log-Likelihood:      -1850.4
Date:               2021-01-05 20:57 Scale:               1.0000
No. Observations:   322              Method:              css-mle
Df Model:           5                Sample:              01-23-2020
Df Residuals:       317                                   12-09-2020
Converged:          1.0000           S.D. of innovations: 75.740
No. Iterations:     22.0000          HQIC:                3721.834
AIC:                3712.7926
---------------------------------------------------------------------
                 Coef.   Std.Err.     t      P>|t|    [0.025   0.975]
---------------------------------------------------------------------
const           14.9469    9.6890    1.5427  0.1229  -4.0431  33.9369
ar.L1.Deaths     0.9104    0.1014    8.9811  0.0000   0.7117   1.1091
ar.L2.Deaths     0.0331    0.0753    0.4392  0.6605  -0.1145   0.1807
ar.L3.Deaths     0.0017    0.0640    0.0274  0.9782  -0.1236   0.1271
ma.L1.Deaths    -0.8705    0.0852  -10.2167  0.0000  -1.0375  -0.7035
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 Real           Imaginary          Modulus          Frequency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AR.1            1.0557            -0.0000           1.0557            -0.0000
AR.2           -9.9790           -21.0184          23.2670            -0.3205
AR.3           -9.9790            21.0184          23.2670             0.3205
MA.1            1.1488             0.0000           1.1488             0.0000
====================================================================