From 8dc219c94366e9eaf40f8973bdb937ac1d7bf061 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: 10195501441 <10195501441@stu.ecnu.edu.cn>
Date: Mon, 4 Jan 2021 11:06:53 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] ARIMA Stability Test

---
 COVID-19/Prediction/.vs/Prediction/v16/.suo     | Bin 24576 -> 39424 bytes
 COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ARIMA.py         |   5 +++-
 COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ARIMA.pyproj     |   3 ++
 COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/Holt_Winters.py  |   2 +-
 COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/StabilityTest.py |  38 ++++++++++++++++++++++++
 5 files changed, 46 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-)
 create mode 100644 COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/StabilityTest.py

diff --git a/COVID-19/Prediction/.vs/Prediction/v16/.suo b/COVID-19/Prediction/.vs/Prediction/v16/.suo
index 5b02e307b985df8523fc621dc7ebc8ecac45be8e..7001ed397b089bb688e01a8e3a2a9b2d88a1dc8f 100644
GIT binary patch
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diff --git a/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ARIMA.py b/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ARIMA.py
index 6564e8f..d07b6bb 100644
--- a/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ARIMA.py
+++ b/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ARIMA.py
@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ import statsmodels.api as sm
 from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
 
 #打开数据文件
-dataset = pd.read_csv('E:\dase intro\COVID-19Analysis\COVID-19\covid-19-all.csv')
+dataset = pd.read_csv('E:\DaseIntro\COVID-19Analysis\COVID-19\covid-19-all.csv')
 
 #数据预处理
 def parse_ymd(s):
@@ -24,6 +24,9 @@ CN.index = pd.Index(pd.date_range('2020-01-22','2020-12-09',freq = '1D'))
 US = dataset[dataset['Country/Region'] == 'US']
 US.index = pd.Index(pd.date_range('2020-01-22','2020-12-09',freq = '1D'))  
 
+print(CN)
+print(US)
+
 #划分训练集、测试集
 trainCN = CN[CN['Date'] < '2020-11-01 ']  
 testCN = CN[CN['Date'] >= '2020-11-01']
diff --git a/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ARIMA.pyproj b/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ARIMA.pyproj
index 4c5722a..0a538fc 100644
--- a/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ARIMA.pyproj
+++ b/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ARIMA.pyproj
@@ -24,6 +24,9 @@
   </PropertyGroup>
   <ItemGroup>
     <Compile Include="ARIMA.py" />
+    <Compile Include="StabilityTest.py">
+      <SubType>Code</SubType>
+    </Compile>
   </ItemGroup>
   <Import Project="$(MSBuildExtensionsPath32)\Microsoft\VisualStudio\v$(VisualStudioVersion)\Python Tools\Microsoft.PythonTools.targets" />
   <!-- Uncomment the CoreCompile target to enable the Build command in
diff --git a/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/Holt_Winters.py b/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/Holt_Winters.py
index 404db3c..47c7621 100644
--- a/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/Holt_Winters.py
+++ b/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/Holt_Winters.py
@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ from statsmodels.tsa.api import ExponentialSmoothing
 from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
 
 #打开数据文件
-dataset = pd.read_csv('E:\dase intro\COVID-19Analysis\COVID-19\covid-19-all.csv')
+dataset = pd.read_csv('E:\DaseIntro\COVID-19Analysis\COVID-19\covid-19-all.csv')
 
 #数据预处理
 def parse_ymd(s):
diff --git a/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/StabilityTest.py b/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/StabilityTest.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..dbc742f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/StabilityTest.py
@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+import pandas as pd
+import numpy as np
+import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
+import statsmodels.api as sm
+from statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import acf,pacf,plot_acf,plot_pacf
+from statsmodels.tsa.arima_model import ARMA
+from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller
+
+#打开数据文件
+dataset = pd.read_csv('E:\DaseIntro\COVID-19Analysis\COVID-19\covid-19-all.csv')
+
+#数据预处理
+def parse_ymd(s):
+	year_s, mon_s, day_s = s.split('-')
+	return datetime.datetime(int(year_s), int(mon_s), int(day_s)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
+dataset = dataset.fillna(0)
+dataset['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(dataset['Date'])
+dataset = dataset[['Country/Region','Confirmed','Recovered','Deaths','Date']].groupby(['Country/Region','Date']).sum().reset_index()
+
+#取出中、美的数据
+CN = dataset[dataset['Country/Region'] == 'China']
+CN.index = pd.Index(pd.date_range('2020-01-22','2020-12-09',freq = '1D'))  
+US = dataset[dataset['Country/Region'] == 'US']
+US.index = pd.Index(pd.date_range('2020-01-22','2020-12-09',freq = '1D'))
+
+#检验Confirmed
+CNconfirmedSeries = pd.DataFrame(CN['Confirmed'])
+CNconfirmedSeries['Confirmed'] = CNconfirmedSeries['Confirmed'] - CNconfirmedSeries['Confirmed'].shift(1)
+CNconfirmedSeries.plot(figsize=(8,6))
+
+CNrecoveredSeries = pd.DataFrame(CN['Recovered'])
+CNrecoveredSeries['Recovered'] = CNrecoveredSeries['Recovered'] - CNrecoveredSeries['Recovered'].shift(1)
+CNrecoveredSeries.plot(figsize=(8,6))
+
+CNdeathsSeries = pd.DataFrame(CN['Deaths'])
+CNdeathsSeries['Deaths'] = CNdeathsSeries['Deaths'] - CNdeathsSeries['Deaths'].shift(1)
+CNdeathsSeries.plot(figsize=(8,6))
+plt.show()
\ No newline at end of file