added ARIMA method

COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction.sln

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ VisualStudioVersion = 16.0.30804.86
 MinimumVisualStudioVersion = 10.0.40219.1
 Project("{888888A0-9F3D-457C-B088-3A5042F75D52}") = "Holt_Winters", "Prediction\Holt_Winters.pyproj", "{FE4194E6-8A95-4B93-968D-ED4305D7F944}"
 EndProject
-Project("{888888A0-9F3D-457C-B088-3A5042F75D52}") = "Holt_Linear_Trend", "Prediction\Holt_Linear_Trend.pyproj", "{3F8A3B3F-C79E-412C-8EE4-DA8FF5DB31A6}"
+Project("{888888A0-9F3D-457C-B088-3A5042F75D52}") = "ARIMA", "Prediction\ARIMA.pyproj", "{3F8A3B3F-C79E-412C-8EE4-DA8FF5DB31A6}"
 EndProject
 Global
 	GlobalSection(SolutionConfigurationPlatforms) = preSolution

COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/Holt_Linear_Trend.py → COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ARIMA.py

@@ -36,13 +36,13 @@ yCNARIMA = testCN.copy()
 yUSARIMA = testUS.copy()
 
 #训练模型
-fitCNconfirmed = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(trainCN.Confirmed).fit()
-fitCNrecovered = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(trainCN['Recovered']).fit()
-fitCNdeaths = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(trainCN['Deaths']).fit()
+fitCNconfirmed = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(trainCN['Confirmed'],trend='c').fit()
+fitCNrecovered = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(trainCN['Recovered'],trend='c').fit()
+fitCNdeaths = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(trainCN['Deaths'],trend='ct').fit()
 
-fitUSconfirmed = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(trainUS.Confirmed,trend='ct').fit()
-fitUSrecovered = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(trainUS['Recovered']).fit()
-fitUSdeaths = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(trainUS['Deaths']).fit()
+fitUSconfirmed = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(trainUS['Confirmed'],trend='ct').fit()
+fitUSrecovered = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(trainUS['Recovered'],trend='ct').fit()
+fitUSdeaths = sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX(trainUS['Deaths'],trend='ct').fit()
 
 #测试
 yCNARIMA['SARIMAconfirmed'] = fitCNconfirmed.predict(start="2020-11-01", end="2020-12-09", dynamic=True)
@@ -65,7 +65,7 @@ forecastCNARIMA['deathsPred'] = fitCNdeaths.predict(start="2020-12-10", end="202
 forecastUSARIMA['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(forecastUSARIMA['Date'], format='%Y/%m/%d').values.astype('datetime64[h]')  
 forecastUSARIMA['confirmedPred'] = fitUSconfirmed.predict(start="2020-12-10", end="2020-12-16", dynamic=True)
 forecastUSARIMA['recoveredPred'] = fitUSrecovered.predict(start="2020-12-10", end="2020-12-16", dynamic=True)
-forecastUSARIMA['deathsPred'] = fitUSdeaths.predict(start="2020-12-10", end="2020-12-16", dynamic=True)
+forecastUSARIMA['deathsPred'] = fitUSdeaths.predict(start="2020-12-10", end="2020-12-16", dynamic=False)
 
 #RMSE
 rmseCNARIMACon = pow(mean_squared_error(np.asarray(testCN['Confirmed']), np.asarray(yCNARIMA['SARIMAconfirmed'])),0.05)

COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/Holt_Linear_Trend.pyproj → COVID-19/Prediction/Prediction/ARIMA.pyproj

@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@
     </SearchPath>
     <WorkingDirectory>.</WorkingDirectory>
     <OutputPath>.</OutputPath>
-    <Name>Holt_Linear_Trend</Name>
+    <Name>ARIMA</Name>
     <RootNamespace>ARIMA</RootNamespace>
   </PropertyGroup>
   <PropertyGroup Condition=" '$(Configuration)' == 'Debug' ">
@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@
     <EnableUnmanagedDebugging>false</EnableUnmanagedDebugging>
   </PropertyGroup>
   <ItemGroup>
-    <Compile Include="Holt_Linear_Trend.py" />
+    <Compile Include="ARIMA.py" />
   </ItemGroup>
   <Import Project="$(MSBuildExtensionsPath32)\Microsoft\VisualStudio\v$(VisualStudioVersion)\Python Tools\Microsoft.PythonTools.targets" />
   <!-- Uncomment the CoreCompile target to enable the Build command in